MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Coffee "C"(ICE) as of Apr 29, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	18	22	24	25	22	20	22	21	19	16
Exceeded High		18	16	17	20	19	14	15	15	16	9	6
Scenario Percentage		75%	89%	77%	83%	76%	64%	75%	68%	76%	47%	38%
Avg Max Increase		10.33%	14.09%	16.64%	13.84%	13.69%	18.82%	13.01%	19.50%	19.52%	19.33%	11.75%
Max Increase		34.47%	30.79%	52.19%	59.47%	48.77%	63.89%	27.25%	82.60%	115.64%	109.13%	38.87%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	19	19	15	17	12	19	20	15	7	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.94%	-2.50%	-1.55%	-1.70%	-2.44%	-1.53%	-3.55%	-3.65%	-2.97%	-2.58%	-1.23%
Max Decline		-11.20%	-11.27%	-8.11%	-6.12%	-9.98%	-6.44%	-12.06%	-12.47%	-12.38%	-10.13%	-3.23%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	5	6	6	9	4	13	9	8	3	4
2021 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	27	22	21	20	23	25	23	24	26	29
Penetrated Low		17	19	18	19	17	22	21	20	20	22	20
Scenario Percentage		81%	70%	82%	90%	85%	96%	84%	87%	83%	85%	69%
Avg Max Decline		8.35%	9.13%	9.14%	8.60%	8.23%	8.47%	9.02%	8.37%	14.55%	11.42%	7.75%
Max Decline		21.21%	21.65%	22.76%	18.17%	22.75%	21.57%	17.07%	17.14%	35.43%	28.60%	25.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	12	15	15	16	17	16	19	19	14	12
Avg Max Increase		-5.07%	-2.49%	-2.16%	-2.31%	-4.18%	-3.44%	-2.63%	-4.91%	-3.90%	-3.75%	-1.66%
Max Increase		-12.46%	-12.35%	-5.96%	-9.62%	-14.70%	-12.01%	-10.04%	-16.15%	-10.75%	-10.42%	-8.26%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	7	9	5	10	9	8	13	10	8	4
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes			Not Yet
High	124.95	132.75	137.00	118.35	127.85	132.50	135.60	142.20	141.60	147.65	163.15	166.75
Low	103.60	116.70	113.10	109.10	108.20	119.85	122.75	124.10	122.55	122.50	139.60	147.05
Close/Last	124.60	131.60	115.50	110.30	126.70	131.85	126.95	139.30	125.40	141.45	162.35	159.35