MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Coffee "C"(ICE) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		12	18	25	17	22	23	22	22	20	18	23
Exceeded High		8	14	19	15	17	18	16	14	16	11	15
Scenario Percentage		67%	78%	76%	88%	77%	78%	73%	64%	80%	61%	65%
Avg Max Increase		15.16%	8.76%	9.56%	14.06%	16.37%	14.04%	14.42%	20.30%	12.36%	16.57%	8.11%
Max Increase		52.27%	18.80%	34.78%	31.13%	49.58%	59.01%	54.25%	64.90%	35.71%	56.93%	44.70%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	12	14	17	18	15	18	13	18	13	11
Avg Max Decline		-3.59%	-4.95%	-2.86%	-2.67%	-1.90%	-1.65%	-2.86%	-1.27%	-4.32%	-3.32%	-1.15%
Max Decline		-18.78%	-11.02%	-11.57%	-11.68%	-8.71%	-5.48%	-10.28%	-5.53%	-12.36%	-10.02%	-4.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	11	11	6	7	4	10	3	13	8	3
2023 Contract Condition				Yes					Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				No					Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		33	27	20	28	23	22	23	23	25	27	22
Penetrated Low		29	17	16	21	19	19	20	22	21	20	12
Scenario Percentage		88%	63%	80%	75%	83%	86%	87%	96%	84%	74%	55%
Avg Max Decline		10.31%	9.27%	7.87%	9.58%	9.67%	9.56%	8.62%	8.28%	9.14%	7.85%	5.63%
Max Decline		25.57%	18.75%	21.08%	25.48%	22.97%	19.21%	23.36%	21.80%	18.44%	18.02%	11.82%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	21	19	12	16	15	16	17	16	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-3.08%	-5.68%	-5.21%	-2.49%	-2.43%	-2.55%	-4.67%	-3.14%	-2.91%	-3.43%	-1.51%
Max Increase		-29.07%	-17.80%	-13.33%	-12.92%	-5.69%	-9.74%	-15.02%	-12.36%	-10.16%	-10.87%	-5.25%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	14	10	6	9	6	10	8	8	9	2
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Not Yet
High	229.20	236.50	227.00	232.05	225.75	211.40	176.65	174.40	182.65	194.15	186.40	207.45
Low	201.00	211.25	188.45	195.60	202.70	165.00	154.70	155.55	143.00	171.65	166.15	171.25
Close/Last	227.05	222.40	206.15	225.00	207.60	172.95	170.15	166.95	181.70	186.30	170.50	189.85