MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Coffee "C"(ICE) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		12	18	24	17	22	24	23	21	19	19	23
Exceeded High		8	14	19	15	17	19	17	13	15	12	15
Scenario Percentage		67%	78%	79%	88%	77%	79%	74%	62%	79%	63%	65%
Avg Max Increase		15.16%	8.76%	9.56%	14.06%	16.37%	14.36%	14.11%	21.34%	12.43%	15.72%	7.96%
Max Increase		52.27%	18.80%	34.78%	31.13%	49.58%	59.01%	54.25%	64.90%	35.71%	56.93%	44.70%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	12	14	17	18	15	17	13	18	13	10
Avg Max Decline		-3.59%	-4.95%	-2.86%	-2.67%	-1.90%	-1.79%	-2.59%	-0.94%	-3.88%	-3.46%	-1.15%
Max Decline		-18.78%	-11.02%	-11.57%	-11.68%	-8.71%	-5.48%	-10.28%	-5.39%	-12.36%	-10.02%	-4.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	11	11	6	7	4	10	3	12	8	3
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			No	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		33	27	21	28	22	21	22	24	26	26	22
Penetrated Low		29	18	17	21	18	18	19	23	22	20	12
Scenario Percentage		88%	67%	81%	75%	82%	86%	86%	96%	85%	77%	55%
Avg Max Decline		10.41%	9.80%	8.56%	8.87%	9.62%	9.21%	8.31%	8.58%	9.15%	7.76%	5.46%
Max Decline		25.57%	18.75%	21.08%	22.57%	22.97%	19.21%	23.36%	21.80%	18.44%	16.20%	10.66%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	21	19	13	16	15	16	17	16	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-3.14%	-5.55%	-5.15%	-2.48%	-2.44%	-2.55%	-4.79%	-3.22%	-2.86%	-3.43%	-1.51%
Max Increase		-29.07%	-17.80%	-13.33%	-12.92%	-5.69%	-9.74%	-15.02%	-12.36%	-10.16%	-10.87%	-5.25%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	14	11	6	9	5	10	8	7	9	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			No			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	171.00	174.60	219.75	204.85	203.40	218.75	247.50	251.35	245.00	260.45	239.15	237.75
Low	146.75	156.25	154.65	178.10	186.10	195.45	202.30	223.20	220.70	232.40	210.15	214.65
Close/Last	170.25	166.55	185.65	199.45	197.90	207.20	231.65	226.00	235.50	232.90	226.40	222.55