MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Coffee "C"(ICE) as of Jan 31, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		13	17	24	18	22	24	24	20	20	20	23
Exceeded High		9	14	19	16	17	19	18	12	16	13	15
Scenario Percentage		69%	82%	79%	89%	77%	79%	75%	60%	80%	65%	65%
Avg Max Increase		14.16%	8.76%	10.10%	14.63%	17.03%	15.06%	14.45%	22.23%	13.28%	15.23%	7.96%
Max Increase		52.27%	18.80%	34.78%	31.13%	49.58%	59.01%	54.25%	64.90%	35.71%	56.93%	44.70%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	12	14	18	19	15	18	13	18	13	10
Avg Max Decline		-5.33%	-4.95%	-2.51%	-2.47%	-1.79%	-1.72%	-2.79%	-1.05%	-3.55%	-3.44%	-1.15%
Max Decline		-19.24%	-11.02%	-11.57%	-11.68%	-8.71%	-5.48%	-10.28%	-5.39%	-12.36%	-10.02%	-4.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	11	10	6	7	4	10	3	11	8	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		32	28	21	27	22	21	21	25	25	25	22
Penetrated Low		28	18	17	21	18	18	18	23	21	19	12
Scenario Percentage		88%	64%	81%	78%	82%	86%	86%	92%	84%	76%	55%
Avg Max Decline		10.52%	9.80%	8.56%	8.87%	9.62%	9.21%	8.65%	8.58%	9.12%	7.65%	5.89%
Max Decline		25.57%	18.75%	21.08%	22.57%	22.97%	19.21%	23.36%	21.80%	18.44%	16.20%	13.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	21	19	13	16	15	17	17	16	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-3.16%	-5.55%	-5.15%	-2.48%	-2.44%	-2.55%	-5.04%	-3.22%	-2.87%	-3.35%	-1.50%
Max Increase		-29.07%	-17.80%	-13.33%	-12.92%	-5.69%	-9.74%	-15.02%	-12.36%	-10.16%	-10.87%	-5.25%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	14	11	6	9	5	11	8	8	9	2
2021 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action					Yes	Yes			Yes		Not Yet
High	117.90	108.30	124.35	131.95	136.45	116.95	126.35	130.90	133.75	140.45	139.80	145.80
Low	103.95	100.55	102.15	115.70	111.65	107.45	106.55	118.25	120.85	122.10	120.50	120.55
Close/Last	104.35	106.40	123.90	130.80	114.10	108.60	125.10	130.15	125.00	137.50	123.50	139.95