Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Coffee "C"(ICE) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 20 13 21 24 16 21 22 23 24 22
Exceeded High   13 12 9 17 18 15 17 20 16 15 13
Scenario Percentage   62% 60% 69% 81% 75% 94% 81% 91% 70% 63% 59%
Avg Max Increase   13.75% 17.36% 15.60% 9.25% 10.63% 16.29% 18.34% 14.85% 18.01% 20.72% 8.71%
Max Increase   74.84% 103.42% 53.36% 20.21% 35.59% 32.17% 54.63% 63.74% 64.24% 65.77% 19.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 9 17 13 16 19 16 15 18 10 8
Avg Max Decline   -1.91% -2.48% -3.73% -4.28% -3.01% -3.59% -2.16% -2.40% -2.99% -1.27% -0.72%
Max Decline   -10.69% -9.42% -18.79% -11.71% -11.95% -12.01% -8.79% -8.80% -10.72% -5.78% -2.64%
Avg Days to Max Decline   3 7 10 9 10 8 7 3 11 2 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action   No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Not Yet
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   24 25 32 24 21 29 24 23 21 21 23
Penetrated Low   21 22 27 18 17 22 22 19 18 18 16
Scenario Percentage   88% 88% 84% 75% 81% 76% 92% 83% 86% 86% 70%
Avg Max Decline   10.87% 12.38% 10.34% 9.23% 8.18% 10.66% 9.12% 10.09% 9.10% 7.89% 5.17%
Max Decline   33.43% 27.36% 26.15% 19.17% 21.71% 27.52% 24.88% 20.29% 22.16% 22.02% 12.03%
Avg Days To Max Decline   20 20 16 20 18 12 15 17 15 12 9
Avg Max Increase   -3.75% -3.02% -4.08% -5.26% -5.61% -2.62% -3.01% -3.41% -4.63% -2.93% -1.62%
Max Increase   -18.45% -8.83% -33.47% -18.81% -13.72% -13.26% -14.35% -11.69% -15.45% -9.70% -5.10%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 8 9 11 11 7 9 9 9 9 2
2025 Contract Condition               Yes        
Action               Yes        
High 190.60 239.35 233.30 234.10 249.95 256.70 272.75 269.15 335.45 348.35 381.05 440.85
Low 177.95 186.45 189.45 214.10 215.15 219.05 233.95 242.10 240.80 290.05 314.90 373.40
Close/Last 187.50 212.55 218.55 222.85 226.90 242.10 267.95 245.50 318.05 319.75 377.85 379.05

Banner

Newsflash

The world will still run for decades on fossil-fuel energy --- crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas.  Buy 'em?  Sell 'em?  When?

MRCI's newest special report is complete with seasonal patterns & weekly charts: for each delivery month and several spreads against each; for product spreads; for cash & basis; and for 3/2/1 and 2/1/1 crack spreads.  Better yet, this 284-page volume presents 190 seasonal & spread strategies to anticipate throughout the next 12-months. Order your copy today!