MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Japanese Yen(CME) as of Jun 23, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		37	40	42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		15	22	16	21	18	20	21	24	22	18	20
Exceeded High		9	16	12	15	14	13	19	17	18	13	7
Scenario Percentage		60%	73%	75%	71%	78%	65%	90%	71%	82%	72%	35%
Avg Max Increase		4.33%	5.77%	4.46%	4.16%	4.03%	4.41%	3.75%	5.67%	6.18%	3.63%	3.28%
Max Increase		9.98%	19.83%	10.37%	9.71%	15.49%	10.93%	9.83%	22.99%	19.82%	11.98%	8.50%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	17	19	14	16	16	15	17	16	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.50%	-0.68%	-0.96%	-1.05%	-1.31%	-1.30%	-1.46%	-1.22%	-0.63%	-0.86%	-0.42%
Max Decline		-5.83%	-2.89%	-3.18%	-4.12%	-3.98%	-2.69%	-3.94%	-3.76%	-3.05%	-2.57%	-1.02%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	7	7	10	7	13	9	13	8	5	1
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes				Yes
Action		No	No			No		Yes				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		37	40	42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	18	26	24	27	25	24	21	23	27	25
Penetrated Low		19	15	19	21	20	19	19	17	22	22	18
Scenario Percentage		86%	83%	73%	88%	74%	76%	79%	81%	96%	81%	72%
Avg Max Decline		4.08%	4.81%	3.93%	4.11%	4.04%	3.85%	3.25%	4.34%	3.86%	3.65%	1.70%
Max Decline		9.63%	11.00%	9.36%	13.47%	8.06%	15.07%	16.03%	9.06%	11.20%	11.71%	3.72%
Avg Days To Max Decline		22	14	15	16	17	17	16	18	19	11	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.38%	-0.43%	-0.84%	-0.60%	-0.84%	-0.88%	-1.30%	-0.85%	-1.18%	-1.06%	-0.20%
Max Increase		-5.83%	-3.98%	-3.03%	-2.76%	-1.92%	-3.76%	-3.61%	-3.23%	-4.28%	-3.68%	-1.14%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	5	10	6	10	7	9	8	9	5	2
2022 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	89.40	88.66	88.30	88.09	82.90	80.14	78.32	76.40	77.62	72.67	70.24	72.93
Low	87.51	86.67	86.90	81.03	77.31	77.20	74.03	72.80	72.67	69.15	66.24	67.55
Close/Last	87.54	87.75	87.93	83.28	78.38	78.73	74.81	75.93	72.84	69.64	67.66	72.65