MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Japanese Yen(CME) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		33	36	38	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Higher		13	20	15	20	17	20	19	23	22	18	18
Exceeded High		9	15	11	15	14	13	17	17	18	13	7
Scenario Percentage		69%	75%	73%	75%	82%	65%	89%	74%	82%	72%	39%
Avg Max Increase		4.33%	5.77%	4.72%	4.16%	4.32%	4.34%	4.04%	5.67%	6.58%	3.86%	3.23%
Max Increase		9.98%	19.83%	10.37%	9.71%	15.49%	10.93%	9.83%	22.99%	19.82%	11.98%	8.50%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	18	14	15	15	17	17	17	12	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.50%	-0.69%	-0.91%	-1.05%	-1.28%	-1.16%	-1.59%	-1.22%	-0.59%	-0.84%	-0.39%
Max Decline		-5.83%	-2.89%	-3.18%	-4.12%	-3.98%	-2.69%	-3.94%	-3.76%	-3.05%	-2.57%	-1.02%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	7	6	10	6	11	10	13	8	4	2
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes			No			No		Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		33	36	38	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Lower		20	16	23	21	25	22	23	19	20	24	24
Penetrated Low		17	13	18	19	18	17	18	15	19	20	17
Scenario Percentage		85%	81%	78%	90%	72%	77%	78%	79%	95%	83%	71%
Avg Max Decline		4.02%	5.15%	3.74%	4.12%	4.29%	4.10%	3.41%	4.04%	3.92%	3.86%	1.78%
Max Decline		9.63%	11.00%	9.36%	13.47%	8.06%	15.07%	16.03%	8.34%	11.20%	11.71%	3.72%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	12	15	16	18	17	16	18	18	11	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.18%	-0.38%	-0.91%	-0.49%	-0.88%	-0.76%	-1.30%	-0.92%	-1.21%	-1.11%	-0.15%
Max Increase		-3.84%	-3.98%	-3.03%	-2.76%	-1.92%	-2.47%	-3.61%	-3.23%	-4.28%	-3.68%	-1.14%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	4	10	5	10	6	10	8	10	5	2
2018 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Not Yet
High	91.47	94.10	96.41	97.28	96.26	93.74	92.66	91.72	91.84	91.24	90.12	89.19
Low	90.00	90.25	92.62	95.27	92.93	91.25	91.28	89.35	90.06	88.42	87.74	87.68
Close/Last	90.75	93.64	95.79	95.72	93.06	93.39	91.30	90.31	90.77	88.54	88.76	88.12