MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Japanese Yen(CME) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		31	34	36	38	42	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		13	14	15	16	22	19	21	19	21	19	23
Exceeded High		12	11	10	11	17	15	16	17	13	15	14
Scenario Percentage		92%	79%	67%	69%	77%	79%	76%	89%	62%	79%	61%
Avg Max Increase		4.12%	4.60%	4.21%	4.51%	6.05%	4.04%	4.32%	4.18%	4.56%	3.35%	2.56%
Max Increase		13.76%	8.75%	13.24%	10.42%	19.60%	10.41%	10.48%	15.22%	10.40%	7.20%	8.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	22	13	17	17	16	15	16	18	12	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.23%	-0.77%	-0.77%	-1.36%	-0.77%	-0.83%	-1.05%	-1.23%	-1.24%	-1.51%	-0.48%
Max Decline		-6.14%	-3.06%	-2.73%	-6.03%	-3.10%	-3.16%	-4.26%	-4.06%	-2.72%	-3.97%	-2.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	8	15	13	8	6	8	6	13	6	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	No		Yes		Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		31	34	36	38	42	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		18	20	21	22	20	24	22	24	22	24	20
Penetrated Low		17	18	17	19	17	21	18	18	17	18	12
Scenario Percentage		94%	90%	81%	86%	85%	88%	82%	75%	77%	75%	60%
Avg Max Decline		4.49%	4.20%	3.58%	3.78%	4.82%	3.58%	4.33%	4.33%	4.15%	2.79%	2.07%
Max Decline		11.44%	10.06%	8.78%	9.65%	10.51%	9.36%	13.18%	8.68%	15.17%	15.70%	6.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	14	14	21	14	15	16	18	16	9	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.18%	-0.69%	-0.27%	-1.38%	-0.65%	-0.95%	-0.43%	-0.93%	-0.85%	-1.10%	-0.51%
Max Increase		-4.18%	-2.95%	-1.77%	-4.05%	-4.35%	-3.00%	-1.94%	-2.12%	-2.64%	-3.88%	-2.28%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	4	10	6	10	3	7	6	5	4
2019 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes		Yes			Yes
Action			Yes			Yes		No			Yes
High	93.02	92.21	91.22	93.16	95.24	93.01	92.41	91.36	93.10	94.22	93.67	95.89
Low	90.67	90.05	90.16	90.11	92.80	91.18	90.68	90.02	90.55	92.59	92.04	91.77
Close/Last	90.67	90.95	90.26	93.12	93.55	91.18	91.43	90.75	93.01	93.31	92.24	94.21