MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Japanese Yen(CME) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		30	33	35	37	41	42	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Higher		12	14	14	15	22	18	21	18	20	19	22
Exceeded High		11	11	9	11	17	14	16	16	12	15	14
Scenario Percentage		92%	79%	64%	73%	77%	78%	76%	89%	60%	79%	64%
Avg Max Increase		4.27%	4.60%	4.42%	4.51%	6.05%	4.19%	4.32%	4.36%	4.71%	3.35%	2.56%
Max Increase		13.76%	8.75%	13.24%	10.42%	19.60%	10.41%	10.48%	15.22%	10.40%	7.20%	8.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	22	14	17	17	15	15	16	17	12	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.25%	-0.77%	-0.89%	-1.36%	-0.77%	-0.78%	-1.05%	-1.28%	-1.20%	-1.51%	-0.48%
Max Decline		-6.14%	-3.06%	-2.73%	-6.03%	-3.10%	-3.16%	-4.26%	-4.06%	-2.72%	-3.97%	-2.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	8	16	13	8	5	8	6	12	6	3
2018 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes			No			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		30	33	35	37	41	42	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Lower		18	19	21	22	19	24	21	24	22	23	20
Penetrated Low		17	17	17	19	16	21	18	18	17	17	12
Scenario Percentage		94%	89%	81%	86%	84%	88%	86%	75%	77%	74%	60%
Avg Max Decline		4.49%	4.43%	3.58%	3.78%	5.05%	3.58%	4.33%	4.33%	4.15%	2.96%	2.07%
Max Decline		11.44%	10.06%	8.78%	9.65%	10.51%	9.36%	13.18%	8.68%	15.17%	15.70%	6.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	14	14	21	14	15	16	18	16	10	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.18%	-0.67%	-0.27%	-1.38%	-0.60%	-0.95%	-0.43%	-0.93%	-0.85%	-1.08%	-0.51%
Max Increase		-4.18%	-2.95%	-1.77%	-4.05%	-4.35%	-3.00%	-1.94%	-2.12%	-2.64%	-3.88%	-2.28%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	4	10	5	10	3	7	6	5	4
2018 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		No			Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	94.83	91.14	91.66	91.06	93.53	96.03	96.70	95.68	93.20	92.62	91.14	91.27
Low	90.14	89.17	88.92	89.56	89.69	91.90	94.60	92.20	90.52	90.61	88.68	89.44
Close/Last	90.62	89.57	90.38	90.16	93.00	95.10	95.06	92.40	92.74	90.68	89.70	90.17