MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Japanese Yen(CME) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		31	33	35	41	42	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		15	21	19	18	18	21	19	23	19	21	18
Exceeded High		13	15	15	14	15	18	14	18	14	14	10
Scenario Percentage		87%	71%	79%	78%	83%	86%	74%	78%	74%	67%	56%
Avg Max Increase		3.36%	5.46%	6.64%	4.68%	4.45%	3.65%	4.71%	6.04%	4.29%	3.75%	2.01%
Max Increase		9.36%	22.09%	19.14%	13.75%	9.70%	12.98%	10.78%	19.42%	10.41%	11.16%	4.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	17	18	21	20	12	18	17	18	13	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.06%	-0.67%	-0.60%	-1.34%	-1.09%	-1.15%	-1.19%	-0.88%	-1.00%	-0.64%	-0.43%
Max Decline		-2.84%	-3.57%	-2.89%	-6.37%	-3.34%	-4.02%	-5.98%	-3.20%	-3.17%	-1.10%	-1.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	11	6	11	10	10	9	9	6	4	2
2019 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action			No		Yes		Yes	No		Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		31	33	35	41	42	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		16	12	16	23	24	22	24	20	24	22	25
Penetrated Low		12	9	16	21	21	18	20	17	21	17	16
Scenario Percentage		75%	75%	100%	91%	88%	82%	83%	85%	88%	77%	64%
Avg Max Decline		3.55%	3.72%	3.09%	4.49%	3.94%	3.96%	4.06%	4.84%	3.62%	4.05%	2.20%
Max Decline		16.02%	7.37%	7.68%	11.58%	10.23%	9.06%	9.59%	10.19%	9.34%	13.03%	5.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	19	19	18	15	14	22	13	14	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.10%	-0.57%	-0.77%	-1.27%	-0.80%	-0.52%	-1.56%	-0.77%	-0.89%	-0.46%	-0.60%
Max Increase		-2.75%	-3.20%	-3.81%	-4.98%	-3.44%	-2.07%	-4.15%	-4.50%	-3.24%	-1.90%	-1.81%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	6	11	7	8	3	11	6	8	3	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes		No			Yes		Not Yet
High	94.09	93.03	93.20	92.28	91.28	90.59	92.49	95.00	92.91	91.82	90.80	92.47
Low	92.72	90.92	91.64	89.94	89.32	89.26	89.39	92.00	90.46	89.91	89.34	89.78
Close/Last	92.72	91.72	92.18	89.94	90.23	89.53	92.41	92.85	90.52	90.79	90.10	92.37