MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Japanese Yen(CME) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		25	27	29	35	36	37	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Higher		12	18	17	17	17	19	14	19	16	18	14
Exceeded High		10	14	14	13	14	16	11	15	11	12	8
Scenario Percentage		83%	78%	82%	76%	82%	84%	79%	79%	69%	67%	57%
Avg Max Increase		3.75%	5.69%	7.01%	4.85%	4.52%	3.42%	5.29%	6.44%	4.44%	4.18%	2.25%
Max Increase		9.36%	22.09%	19.14%	13.75%	9.70%	12.98%	10.78%	19.42%	10.41%	11.16%	4.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	18	20	19	12	18	16	18	13	10
Avg Max Decline		-1.09%	-0.70%	-0.60%	-1.36%	-1.10%	-1.21%	-1.17%	-0.78%	-1.10%	-0.64%	-0.39%
Max Decline		-2.84%	-3.57%	-2.89%	-6.37%	-3.34%	-4.02%	-5.98%	-3.20%	-3.17%	-1.10%	-0.99%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	11	6	11	10	9	8	9	5	5	2
2013 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		No

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		25	27	29	35	36	37	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Lower		13	9	12	18	19	18	23	18	21	19	23
Penetrated Low		9	6	12	16	17	17	20	15	18	15	15
Scenario Percentage		69%	67%	100%	89%	89%	94%	87%	83%	86%	79%	65%
Avg Max Decline		3.71%	3.60%	2.93%	4.07%	4.29%	4.09%	4.06%	5.27%	3.69%	4.27%	2.25%
Max Decline		16.02%	7.00%	5.74%	8.63%	10.23%	9.06%	9.59%	10.19%	9.34%	13.03%	5.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	17	20	21	16	14	22	12	14	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.16%	-0.44%	-0.42%	-1.44%	-0.82%	-0.57%	-1.56%	-0.76%	-0.93%	-0.47%	-0.63%
Max Increase		-2.75%	-1.16%	-1.73%	-4.98%	-3.44%	-2.07%	-4.15%	-4.50%	-3.24%	-1.90%	-1.81%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	4	10	8	9	3	11	5	8	4	2
2013 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	129.16	128.66	128.59	129.53	128.63	126.36	122.42	115.58	110.14	108.24	108.09	103.10
Low	125.09	125.89	126.25	127.18	124.87	121.49	115.53	109.16	106.00	103.45	100.08	96.40
Close/Last	125.98	128.59	128.11	128.63	125.67	121.60	115.58	109.53	107.97	106.33	102.58	99.34