MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Japanese Yen(CME) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		35	38	40	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	16	18	21	24	22	18	20	22	21	24
Exceeded High		10	12	12	19	17	18	15	15	17	13	10
Scenario Percentage		63%	75%	67%	90%	71%	82%	83%	75%	77%	62%	42%
Avg Max Increase		3.57%	2.84%	3.99%	3.64%	5.58%	6.12%	4.26%	4.86%	3.70%	4.03%	3.80%
Max Increase		7.46%	6.77%	5.90%	9.66%	22.51%	19.42%	13.74%	9.66%	12.81%	8.20%	8.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	18	15	17	17	19	20	12	9	6
Avg Max Decline		-0.89%	-1.30%	-1.36%	-1.29%	-0.96%	-0.69%	-1.58%	-0.99%	-1.19%	-1.03%	-0.24%
Max Decline		-3.95%	-3.16%	-3.72%	-3.75%	-3.68%	-2.92%	-6.60%	-3.45%	-4.19%	-3.56%	-0.70%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	8	12	8	13	9	10	7	10	6	1
2023 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			No		Yes				Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		35	38	40	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	22	22	24	21	23	27	25	23	24	21
Penetrated Low		14	16	16	18	17	22	23	22	20	21	17
Scenario Percentage		74%	73%	73%	75%	81%	96%	85%	88%	87%	88%	81%
Avg Max Decline		5.03%	3.82%	3.36%	3.37%	4.30%	3.86%	4.33%	3.84%	3.67%	3.17%	2.49%
Max Decline		13.48%	8.05%	14.90%	16.01%	8.87%	11.04%	11.69%	10.31%	9.71%	6.39%	4.17%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	14	16	16	18	19	20	13	13	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-0.54%	-0.65%	-0.71%	-1.08%	-0.76%	-1.11%	-1.41%	-1.02%	-0.60%	-1.17%	-0.21%
Max Increase		-2.24%	-1.72%	-3.72%	-3.44%	-3.19%	-3.93%	-6.01%	-3.08%	-2.09%	-4.28%	-1.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	8	7	9	8	11	6	10	4	7	2
2023 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	No				Yes
High	88.49	83.43	80.79	78.84	77.16	78.39	73.30	71.07	73.81	77.47	79.19	78.47
Low	81.68	77.92	77.84	74.90	73.61	73.47	70.02	67.10	68.42	73.21	74.83	73.16
Close/Last	83.84	79.02	79.37	75.58	76.68	73.63	70.49	68.52	73.50	77.07	77.24	73.60