MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Japanese Yen(CME) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		34	37	39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	15	18	21	25	23	19	20	22	20	25
Exceeded High		10	12	12	19	18	19	16	15	17	13	13
Scenario Percentage		63%	80%	67%	90%	72%	83%	84%	75%	77%	65%	52%
Avg Max Increase		3.57%	2.84%	3.99%	3.67%	5.73%	6.35%	4.29%	4.57%	3.62%	4.16%	3.40%
Max Increase		7.46%	6.77%	5.90%	9.66%	22.51%	19.42%	13.74%	9.66%	12.81%	8.91%	8.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	18	17	18	18	19	19	11	9	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.89%	-1.30%	-1.36%	-1.31%	-0.92%	-0.64%	-1.51%	-0.97%	-0.96%	-1.03%	-0.45%
Max Decline		-3.95%	-3.16%	-3.72%	-3.75%	-3.68%	-2.92%	-6.60%	-3.45%	-4.19%	-3.56%	-1.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	8	12	9	13	9	9	7	10	6	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes				No		Not Yet	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		34	37	39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	22	21	24	20	22	26	25	23	25	20
Penetrated Low		13	16	15	18	16	21	23	22	20	21	16
Scenario Percentage		72%	73%	71%	75%	80%	95%	88%	88%	87%	84%	80%
Avg Max Decline		5.02%	3.82%	3.40%	3.37%	4.01%	3.82%	4.33%	3.84%	3.67%	3.19%	2.65%
Max Decline		13.48%	8.05%	14.90%	16.01%	7.87%	11.04%	11.69%	10.31%	9.71%	6.39%	4.17%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	14	15	16	18	19	20	13	13	12	10
Avg Max Increase		-0.40%	-0.65%	-0.51%	-1.08%	-0.84%	-1.13%	-1.41%	-1.02%	-0.60%	-1.17%	-0.19%
Max Increase		-1.54%	-1.72%	-1.98%	-3.44%	-3.19%	-3.93%	-6.01%	-3.08%	-2.09%	-4.28%	-1.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	8	6	9	8	11	6	10	4	7	2
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
High	94.36	93.33	92.53	91.79	91.91	92.16	91.81	90.35	88.99	88.94	88.17	87.65
Low	90.70	90.82	91.13	90.27	89.83	90.48	89.38	87.33	86.70	86.73	85.98	85.96
Close/Last	90.72	91.84	91.34	90.28	91.32	91.11	89.91	87.91	88.54	86.98	86.99	87.07