MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Japanese Yen(CME) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		32	35	37	43	43	44	44	44	44	44	44
Closed Higher		15	15	18	19	25	23	18	18	22	20	25
Exceeded High		10	12	12	17	18	18	15	14	17	14	15
Scenario Percentage		67%	80%	67%	89%	72%	78%	83%	78%	77%	70%	60%
Avg Max Increase		3.57%	2.84%	3.99%	3.95%	5.73%	6.58%	4.46%	4.78%	3.83%	4.04%	3.05%
Max Increase		7.46%	6.77%	5.90%	9.66%	22.51%	19.42%	13.74%	9.66%	12.81%	8.91%	8.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	18	17	18	18	19	20	13	9	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.89%	-1.30%	-1.36%	-1.41%	-0.92%	-0.64%	-1.55%	-1.01%	-0.95%	-0.96%	-0.44%
Max Decline		-3.95%	-3.16%	-3.72%	-3.75%	-3.68%	-2.92%	-6.60%	-3.45%	-4.19%	-3.56%	-1.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	8	12	9	13	9	9	7	10	5	2
2020 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		No				Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		32	35	37	43	43	44	44	44	44	44	44
Closed Lower		17	20	19	24	18	21	26	26	22	24	19
Penetrated Low		12	14	14	18	15	20	23	23	19	20	15
Scenario Percentage		71%	70%	74%	75%	83%	95%	88%	88%	86%	83%	79%
Avg Max Decline		5.23%	4.12%	3.60%	3.37%	4.00%	3.83%	4.34%	3.70%	3.80%	3.23%	2.80%
Max Decline		13.48%	8.05%	14.90%	16.01%	7.87%	11.04%	11.69%	10.31%	9.71%	6.39%	4.89%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	16	16	16	18	19	19	13	13	12	10
Avg Max Increase		-0.31%	-0.68%	-0.54%	-1.08%	-0.84%	-1.16%	-1.35%	-0.97%	-0.56%	-1.21%	-0.18%
Max Increase		-1.54%	-1.72%	-1.98%	-3.44%	-3.19%	-3.93%	-6.01%	-3.08%	-2.09%	-4.28%	-1.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	9	6	9	8	11	6	9	3	7	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	93.66	92.57	94.23	95.13	94.88	96.96	95.79	94.92	93.48	92.94	93.24	93.10
Low	92.09	91.33	91.86	93.86	93.50	93.13	93.36	92.33	91.82	91.61	90.94	89.21
Close/Last	92.74	92.06	94.23	94.50	93.50	95.42	93.60	93.39	92.03	92.46	92.50	92.82