MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Japanese Yen(CME) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		31	34	36	42	42	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		15	14	17	19	24	23	18	18	21	19	24
Exceeded High		10	11	11	17	18	18	15	14	16	13	14
Scenario Percentage		67%	79%	65%	89%	75%	78%	83%	78%	76%	68%	58%
Avg Max Increase		3.57%	3.02%	4.11%	3.95%	5.73%	6.58%	4.46%	4.78%	4.01%	4.12%	3.08%
Max Increase		7.46%	6.77%	5.90%	9.66%	22.51%	19.42%	13.74%	9.66%	12.81%	10.77%	9.86%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	17	17	18	18	19	20	13	9	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.89%	-1.39%	-1.35%	-1.41%	-0.92%	-0.64%	-1.55%	-1.01%	-0.97%	-0.76%	-0.43%
Max Decline		-3.95%	-3.16%	-3.72%	-3.75%	-3.68%	-2.92%	-6.60%	-3.45%	-4.19%	-2.12%	-1.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	7	11	9	13	9	9	7	10	4	2
2019 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			No			No		Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		31	34	36	42	42	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		16	20	19	23	18	20	25	25	22	24	19
Penetrated Low		12	14	14	17	15	19	22	22	19	20	15
Scenario Percentage		75%	70%	74%	74%	83%	95%	88%	88%	86%	83%	79%
Avg Max Decline		5.23%	4.12%	3.60%	3.55%	4.00%	3.93%	4.45%	3.81%	3.80%	3.23%	2.81%
Max Decline		13.48%	8.05%	14.90%	16.01%	7.87%	11.04%	11.69%	10.31%	9.71%	6.39%	4.89%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	16	16	17	18	18	19	12	13	12	10
Avg Max Increase		-0.31%	-0.68%	-0.54%	-1.07%	-0.84%	-1.15%	-1.40%	-0.96%	-0.56%	-1.21%	-0.18%
Max Increase		-1.54%	-1.72%	-1.98%	-3.44%	-3.19%	-3.93%	-6.01%	-3.08%	-2.09%	-4.28%	-1.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	9	6	9	8	12	6	8	3	7	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		No			Yes
High	98.05	97.05	94.48	93.49	92.32	92.20	91.59	90.79	89.91	91.82	94.59	92.28
Low	96.08	93.66	92.07	92.02	90.27	90.88	89.22	88.52	88.45	88.65	91.30	89.80
Close/Last	96.47	93.81	94.12	92.02	91.01	91.48	89.27	89.50	88.84	91.71	92.16	89.88