MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Japanese Yen(CME) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		26	29	31	37	37	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		12	11	14	17	21	21	17	17	19	15	21
Exceeded High		8	9	9	15	17	17	14	13	14	11	13
Scenario Percentage		67%	82%	64%	88%	81%	81%	82%	76%	74%	73%	62%
Avg Max Increase		3.67%	3.47%	4.08%	4.14%	5.93%	6.88%	4.60%	4.87%	3.77%	4.46%	3.21%
Max Increase		7.46%	6.77%	5.90%	9.66%	22.51%	19.42%	13.74%	9.66%	12.81%	10.77%	9.86%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	17	16	18	19	18	18	20	14	10	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.54%	-1.49%	-0.97%	-1.50%	-0.95%	-0.65%	-1.57%	-1.01%	-0.99%	-0.69%	-0.42%
Max Decline		-1.33%	-3.16%	-2.63%	-3.75%	-3.68%	-2.92%	-6.60%	-3.45%	-4.19%	-2.12%	-1.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	8	6	10	13	9	9	7	10	5	2
2014 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes
Action				No	Yes						Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		26	29	31	37	37	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		14	18	17	20	16	17	21	21	19	23	17
Penetrated Low		10	13	12	14	13	16	18	19	18	20	13
Scenario Percentage		71%	72%	71%	70%	81%	94%	86%	90%	95%	87%	76%
Avg Max Decline		5.82%	4.33%	3.91%	3.65%	3.87%	4.00%	4.14%	4.02%	3.92%	3.23%	3.04%
Max Decline		13.48%	8.05%	14.90%	16.01%	7.87%	11.04%	8.76%	10.31%	9.71%	6.39%	4.89%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	17	16	15	16	19	20	13	14	12	10
Avg Max Increase		-0.34%	-0.73%	-0.59%	-1.12%	-0.78%	-0.97%	-1.50%	-0.89%	-0.61%	-1.21%	-0.18%
Max Increase		-1.54%	-1.72%	-1.98%	-3.44%	-1.62%	-2.39%	-6.01%	-3.08%	-2.09%	-4.28%	-1.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	9	6	8	7	10	7	8	3	7	2
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	108.36	108.07	102.95	106.43	102.46	103.98	102.62	103.58	102.50	98.45	98.22	99.27
Low	104.12	100.41	97.10	99.56	99.02	100.66	99.69	101.14	97.53	94.89	94.86	97.25
Close/Last	106.68	102.83	99.56	101.06	102.46	102.01	101.94	101.79	97.67	95.03	97.75	98.25