MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Japanese Yen(CME) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	19	22	24	30	30	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher	9	8	11	11	17	16	15	13	16	10	17
Exceeded High	5	6	7	9	14	13	12	10	12	7	10
Scenario Percentage	56%	75%	64%	82%	82%	81%	80%	77%	75%	70%	59%
Avg Max Increase	4.26%	3.80%	3.74%	4.61%	6.38%	6.58%	4.27%	4.73%	3.95%	4.87%	2.95%
Max Increase	7.46%	6.77%	5.90%	9.66%	22.51%	19.42%	13.74%	9.66%	12.81%	9.35%	8.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase	19	19	16	19	18	18	20	18	14	12	8
Avg Max Decline	-0.34%	-1.35%	-1.08%	-1.39%	-0.72%	-0.35%	-1.57%	-0.79%	-0.66%	-0.44%	-0.39%
Max Decline	-0.82%	-3.09%	-2.63%	-3.75%	-3.62%	-1.77%	-6.60%	-2.00%	-3.58%	-1.00%	-0.90%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	11	6	13	11	8	10	4	9	2	2
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes			Yes
Action	Yes	No					Yes	Yes			Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	19	22	24	30	30	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower	10	14	13	19	13	15	16	18	15	21	14
Penetrated Low	7	11	11	13	11	14	15	16	15	18	12
Scenario Percentage	70%	79%	85%	68%	85%	93%	94%	89%	100%	86%	86%
Avg Max Decline	6.36%	4.68%	3.88%	3.74%	4.13%	4.04%	3.75%	3.88%	4.10%	3.16%	6.99%
Max Decline	13.48%	8.05%	14.90%	16.01%	7.87%	11.04%	8.76%	8.91%	9.71%	6.39%	17.73%
Avg Days To Max Decline	18	15	16	15	16	18	18	12	16	12	14
Avg Max Increase	-0.31%	-0.71%	-0.48%	-1.19%	-0.81%	-0.84%	-1.30%	-0.86%	-0.55%	-1.25%	-0.50%
Max Increase	-1.54%	-1.72%	-1.98%	-3.44%	-1.62%	-2.39%	-2.88%	-3.08%	-2.00%	-4.28%	-4.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	6	6	9	7	9	6	9	3	6	4
2007 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
High	91.76	95.26	92.94	91.08	90.25	88.75	87.36	88.00	88.60	85.55	85.35
Low	88.24	91.78	89.09	87.81	87.30	86.56	85.18	85.79	84.76	82.38	82.29
Close/Last	91.76	92.22	90.56	90.05	87.55	86.64	87.13	87.61	84.84	83.36	84.73