Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for November Orange Juice(ICE) as of Sep 30, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Tested Years   43 43 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   12 16 12 24 20 30 19 23 24 20 22
Exceeded High   7 6 10 17 15 20 17 18 20 15 12
Scenario Percentage   58% 38% 83% 71% 75% 67% 89% 78% 83% 75% 55%
Avg Max Increase   12.37% 9.64% 10.00% 10.91% 11.52% 9.11% 9.20% 8.67% 12.46% 13.13% 5.76%
Max Increase   26.07% 15.60% 22.94% 28.65% 34.71% 27.54% 19.25% 21.04% 41.81% 40.93% 15.03%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 18 18 20 19 15 14 15 17 6 5
Avg Max Decline   -0.90% -2.23% -0.90% -3.53% -1.05% -3.24% -2.20% -2.23% -4.44% -2.59% -0.83%
Max Decline   -8.81% -7.58% -4.71% -13.74% -3.43% -21.28% -7.89% -7.01% -19.84% -10.23% -2.91%
Avg Days to Max Decline   4 6 5 12 7 9 7 7 12 4 1
2022 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes  
Action   Yes No   Yes No   Yes   Yes Not Yet  
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Tested Years   43 43 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   31 27 32 20 25 14 26 21 21 25 23
Penetrated Low   28 20 26 14 20 9 20 15 17 17 6
Scenario Percentage   90% 74% 81% 70% 80% 64% 77% 71% 81% 68% 26%
Avg Max Decline   10.02% 8.47% 7.81% 10.49% 8.11% 9.88% 7.60% 10.27% 11.30% 9.60% 4.60%
Max Decline   24.62% 23.27% 18.47% 33.70% 27.83% 20.94% 13.29% 22.93% 26.83% 21.35% 7.17%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 13 18 18 17 22 19 15 18 16 6
Avg Max Increase   -1.98% -1.63% -2.77% -2.42% -3.23% -3.72% -3.55% -3.12% -3.06% -1.98% -0.97%
Max Increase   -10.33% -3.68% -8.42% -10.57% -10.50% -20.66% -8.74% -7.83% -8.17% -6.01% -2.49%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 8 7 11 12 14 11 11 10 3 2
2022 Contract Condition       Yes     Yes   Yes      
Action       No     Yes   No      
High 140.10 141.70 151.20 145.70 149.35 181.40 177.35 178.00 171.00 185.75 195.30  
Low 128.90 130.55 142.00 138.50 139.10 154.60 159.00 159.75 149.30 162.00 164.35  
Close/Last 132.55 141.40 145.20 142.40 147.85 171.50 167.35 170.35 166.75 185.35 191.40  

Banner

Login

Main Menu

MRCI Online

Free Links

Newsflash

The world will still run for decades on fossil-fuel energy --- crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas.  Buy 'em?  Sell 'em?  When?  Just since 2008, crude oil traded at $147/barrel, collapsed to -$40.32/barrel in 2020, ran to higher than $130 in early 2022, and the traded less than half that in May!

MRCI's newest special report is complete with seasonal patterns & weekly charts: for each delivery month and several spreads against each; for product spreads; for cash & basis; and for 3/2/1 and 2/1/1 crack spreads.  Better yet, this 284-page volume presents 190 seasonal & spread strategies to anticipate throughout the next 12-months. Order your copy today! https://www.mrci.com/products/energy