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ScenarioSM Study for September Orange Juice(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
Tested Years | 40 | 42 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 22 | 24 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 25 | 20 | 27 | 17 | 25 | 25 | |
Exceeded High | 18 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 10 | |
Scenario Percentage | 82% | 67% | 64% | 44% | 75% | 80% | 75% | 59% | 88% | 68% | 40% | |
Avg Max Increase | 8.77% | 10.48% | 11.20% | 10.38% | 10.10% | 10.41% | 12.14% | 10.87% | 10.81% | 7.43% | 6.31% | |
Max Increase | 25.83% | 31.05% | 27.04% | 17.51% | 28.55% | 29.71% | 34.95% | 28.29% | 21.34% | 22.84% | 15.65% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 7 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.98% | -1.56% | -1.42% | -1.72% | -1.85% | -3.38% | -1.81% | -4.05% | -2.92% | -2.11% | 0.30% | |
Max Decline | -5.19% | -5.68% | -9.68% | -7.24% | -9.57% | -14.88% | -11.94% | -22.29% | -13.63% | -10.16% | -0.82% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 10 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |
2018 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | No | No | Yes | No | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.