MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Orange Juice(ICE) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	20	20	27	16	17	17	29	17	30	18
Exceeded High		18	16	17	17	11	6	15	22	11	18	12
Scenario Percentage		78%	80%	85%	63%	69%	35%	88%	76%	65%	60%	67%
Avg Max Increase		12.09%	14.43%	9.14%	13.99%	13.10%	13.60%	11.55%	11.29%	12.60%	8.40%	5.35%
Max Increase		41.65%	43.02%	24.27%	62.51%	28.36%	23.78%	31.32%	30.56%	34.97%	24.06%	9.31%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	15	14	14	22	17	19	21	9	7
Avg Max Decline		-2.76%	-1.13%	-1.09%	-1.91%	-1.21%	-1.66%	-2.07%	-4.18%	-3.11%	-3.03%	-0.56%
Max Decline		-17.24%	-7.60%	-6.21%	-6.31%	-10.29%	-8.26%	-9.63%	-15.50%	-10.98%	-10.31%	-2.77%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	6	8	10	7	5	6	12	6	8	2
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	25	25	18	29	28	28	16	28	15	27
Penetrated Low		18	20	19	11	24	18	21	12	20	8	10
Scenario Percentage		86%	80%	76%	61%	83%	64%	75%	75%	71%	53%	37%
Avg Max Decline		8.66%	7.92%	7.98%	11.64%	11.23%	9.30%	9.22%	12.82%	9.09%	10.30%	3.76%
Max Decline		23.73%	18.33%	19.61%	21.05%	24.38%	23.76%	23.12%	39.88%	31.55%	21.50%	7.62%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	17	22	23	19	14	19	21	17	14	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.07%	-0.79%	-3.48%	-3.19%	-2.82%	-1.97%	-4.60%	-2.73%	-4.39%	-2.48%	-2.28%
Max Increase		-7.36%	-3.70%	-17.43%	-14.46%	-12.91%	-7.85%	-13.42%	-11.56%	-14.22%	-7.11%	-10.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	5	19	11	8	7	10	12	9	6	2
2023 Contract Condition					Yes							Yes
Action					No							Not Yet
High	168.65	172.25	179.30	193.30	202.85	203.30	209.20	242.00	258.95	280.75	295.90	286.20
Low	154.95	158.75	162.00	175.35	185.45	187.15	195.80	210.70	218.65	254.00	239.20	253.10
Close/Last	168.65	172.25	179.30	192.60	190.60	195.80	209.20	241.00	257.80	268.55	282.20	271.75