MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Orange Juice(ICE) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	25	22	20	20	28	15	21	17	29	14
Exceeded High		20	19	16	16	17	21	11	9	15	20	7
Scenario Percentage		95%	76%	73%	80%	85%	75%	73%	43%	88%	69%	50%
Avg Max Increase		6.44%	6.87%	13.46%	15.03%	9.71%	12.80%	14.37%	13.88%	11.66%	8.89%	7.33%
Max Increase		18.06%	17.04%	42.70%	43.51%	23.65%	62.21%	29.47%	28.10%	28.32%	27.97%	16.03%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	17	14	15	14	17	21	15	10	7
Avg Max Decline		-2.37%	-1.05%	-2.99%	-1.20%	-1.06%	-2.18%	-2.32%	-3.09%	-2.40%	-2.61%	0.02%
Max Decline		-10.34%	-7.10%	-17.46%	-8.24%	-7.22%	-6.81%	-10.80%	-10.03%	-10.69%	-12.78%	-1.91%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	8	15	6	8	11	8	11	3	6	1
2023 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	20	22	25	25	17	30	24	28	16	31
Penetrated Low		17	14	19	19	19	12	25	17	20	11	7
Scenario Percentage		74%	70%	86%	76%	76%	71%	83%	71%	71%	69%	23%
Avg Max Decline		7.05%	7.57%	9.08%	8.75%	8.79%	11.23%	11.65%	9.75%	9.70%	10.29%	6.44%
Max Decline		13.35%	19.86%	23.81%	18.33%	21.27%	22.67%	25.94%	24.98%	25.09%	30.88%	19.28%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	14	20	17	22	20	19	14	17	13	5
Avg Max Increase		-1.83%	-2.22%	-2.43%	-1.00%	-3.72%	-3.69%	-2.99%	-2.55%	-5.65%	-2.40%	-1.43%
Max Increase		-5.15%	-6.17%	-7.32%	-5.20%	-14.90%	-15.84%	-14.42%	-13.27%	-18.55%	-7.71%	-4.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	12	9	5	19	9	8	6	11	9	2
2023 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes					Yes
Action			No				No					Not Yet
High	176.60	170.95	167.80	171.90	178.90	195.00	209.90	206.30	213.95	256.95	272.15	287.90
Low	163.20	161.20	154.10	158.60	161.65	175.00	187.85	189.00	196.20	213.55	226.50	261.50
Close/Last	167.60	169.10	167.80	171.90	178.90	193.60	192.80	199.95	212.45	253.60	269.50	267.55