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ScenarioSM Study for May Orange Juice(ICE) as of Oct 06, 2023 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
Tested Years | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 21 | 25 | 22 | 20 | 20 | 28 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 29 | 14 | |
Exceeded High | 20 | 19 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 20 | 7 | |
Scenario Percentage | 95% | 76% | 73% | 80% | 85% | 75% | 73% | 43% | 88% | 69% | 50% | |
Avg Max Increase | 6.44% | 6.87% | 13.46% | 15.03% | 9.71% | 12.80% | 14.37% | 13.88% | 11.66% | 8.89% | 7.33% | |
Max Increase | 18.06% | 17.04% | 42.70% | 43.51% | 23.65% | 62.21% | 29.47% | 28.10% | 28.32% | 27.97% | 16.03% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 7 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.37% | -1.05% | -2.99% | -1.20% | -1.06% | -2.18% | -2.32% | -3.09% | -2.40% | -2.61% | 0.02% | |
Max Decline | -10.34% | -7.10% | -17.46% | -8.24% | -7.22% | -6.81% | -10.80% | -10.03% | -10.69% | -12.78% | -1.91% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 13 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 1 | |
2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.