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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for January Orange Juice(ICE) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   12 25 22 32 21 22 25 21 21 29 13
Exceeded High   9 18 19 21 18 17 18 17 18 18 7
Scenario Percentage   75% 72% 86% 66% 86% 77% 72% 81% 86% 62% 54%
Avg Max Increase   10.88% 12.13% 10.13% 8.34% 8.82% 8.54% 14.51% 17.37% 11.19% 12.42% 10.67%
Max Increase   22.08% 27.54% 31.86% 25.04% 20.31% 20.36% 45.52% 46.44% 21.32% 53.49% 19.53%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 18 17 16 15 15 21 13 15 10 8
Avg Max Decline   -1.48% -2.84% -0.99% -2.93% -2.37% -1.51% -3.85% -1.74% -2.69% -2.69% -0.30%
Max Decline   -7.67% -13.16% -7.27% -20.34% -10.94% -5.70% -18.57% -8.22% -10.29% -8.71% -3.48%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 12 7 7 7 4 13 5 7 11 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   32 19 23 13 24 22 20 24 24 16 32
Penetrated Low   26 14 16 9 19 14 17 20 17 10 18
Scenario Percentage   81% 74% 70% 69% 79% 64% 85% 83% 71% 63% 56%
Avg Max Decline   7.09% 8.83% 8.23% 10.29% 7.50% 9.77% 10.59% 9.99% 11.19% 10.66% 4.19%
Max Decline   17.16% 30.44% 24.56% 20.03% 14.05% 21.87% 25.31% 20.16% 24.35% 23.73% 9.54%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 17 18 22 19 17 18 18 23 17 7
Avg Max Increase   -2.27% -1.79% -3.02% -3.59% -2.82% -2.84% -2.59% -1.84% -4.00% -5.22% -1.16%
Max Increase   -6.82% -9.06% -9.65% -19.76% -7.80% -6.81% -8.00% -4.94% -13.14% -18.24% -4.96%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 9 12 13 12 10 10 4 16 10 4
2025 Contract Condition                       Yes
Action                       Not Yet
High 324.45 352.00 354.95 366.50 438.40 423.30 440.00 472.80 489.65 498.00 533.05 551.10
Low 292.20 312.40 333.35 339.10 360.70 395.65 401.00 408.90 445.00 446.65 454.00 486.40
Close/Last 324.45 331.75 348.50 357.30 404.45 404.80 412.60 450.40 453.85 487.50 500.75 497.50

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