MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		19	19	19	22	22	22	24	24	24	25	25
Closed Higher		10	10	12	16	15	9	12	18	14	14	12
Exceeded High		9	10	12	15	13	8	12	17	11	11	4
Scenario Percentage		90%	100%	100%	94%	87%	89%	100%	94%	79%	79%	33%
Avg Max Increase		11.00%	11.34%	12.08%	9.66%	10.71%	10.21%	11.36%	15.28%	17.06%	8.65%	5.51%
Max Increase		20.24%	25.17%	24.34%	22.25%	33.88%	17.35%	19.80%	86.32%	53.95%	20.68%	7.88%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	14	19	17	16	18	19	19	17	13	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.17%	-2.85%	-1.89%	-3.13%	-2.09%	-1.66%	-2.55%	-1.64%	-2.11%	-4.27%	-1.64%
Max Decline		-7.31%	-9.48%	-4.50%	-9.24%	-5.31%	-4.93%	-14.47%	-10.12%	-13.31%	-13.18%	-3.16%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	9	7	8	7	7	6	8	6	1
2013 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		19	19	19	22	22	22	24	24	24	25	25
Closed Lower		9	9	7	6	7	13	12	6	10	11	13
Penetrated Low		5	3	3	2	4	7	7	4	8	8	9
Scenario Percentage		56%	33%	43%	33%	57%	54%	58%	67%	80%	73%	69%
Avg Max Decline		13.70%	12.53%	7.34%	4.11%	10.19%	7.87%	7.51%	15.26%	13.87%	13.94%	8.06%
Max Decline		23.63%	16.55%	11.41%	6.89%	23.02%	13.95%	14.47%	28.79%	49.34%	49.18%	22.54%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	13	12	4	19	16	14	15	20	11	10
Avg Max Increase		-4.21%	-3.11%	-1.08%	-0.54%	-3.80%	-1.30%	-1.38%	-7.09%	-4.00%	-1.38%	-2.59%
Max Increase		-7.63%	-6.39%	-2.61%	-1.12%	-7.61%	-2.99%	-6.20%	-21.51%	-15.64%	-3.60%	-6.19%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	4	12	1	6	5	7	18	17	5	3
2013 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		No		Yes		No	No				Yes
High	106.25	106.46	108.98	112.24	106.72	108.30	103.80	105.19	107.06	114.44	113.28	111.30
Low	100.07	101.33	103.56	105.09	103.40	95.96	96.80	98.31	99.99	103.29	106.30	106.00
Close/Last	105.54	104.81	108.84	105.55	106.65	100.46	99.02	100.46	105.75	110.99	107.43	108.84