MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		12	23	23	23	26	26	26	27	28	28	28
Closed Higher		8	12	10	10	12	11	12	17	17	17	12
Exceeded High		7	10	8	7	10	10	11	16	16	16	9
Scenario Percentage		88%	83%	80%	70%	83%	91%	92%	94%	94%	94%	75%
Avg Max Increase		5.85%	9.79%	9.57%	6.94%	7.24%	10.57%	11.94%	11.22%	11.22%	8.10%	8.56%
Max Increase		10.49%	28.49%	19.59%	12.62%	17.55%	21.87%	25.00%	29.20%	25.31%	29.07%	14.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase		11	14	14	15	12	16	11	17	15	12	16
Avg Max Decline		-0.57%	-1.41%	-1.14%	-1.71%	-1.98%	-2.20%	-2.39%	-2.54%	-3.50%	-2.63%	-1.58%
Max Decline		-7.71%	-4.99%	-4.53%	-3.45%	-8.39%	-8.13%	-10.75%	-15.31%	-10.48%	-8.63%	-4.63%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	6	5	13	6	7	6	9	9	7	4
2017 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		No

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		12	23	23	23	26	26	26	27	28	28	28
Closed Lower		4	11	13	13	14	15	14	10	11	11	16
Penetrated Low		4	7	11	11	11	10	6	4	6	6	11
Scenario Percentage		100%	64%	85%	85%	79%	67%	43%	40%	55%	55%	69%
Avg Max Decline		13.18%	14.86%	12.45%	13.06%	14.56%	12.69%	10.62%	8.23%	6.33%	13.98%	8.27%
Max Decline		25.96%	43.27%	45.40%	36.95%	37.65%	26.57%	21.89%	14.91%	12.97%	25.51%	14.22%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	15	15	18	16	16	15	20	10	20	19
Avg Max Increase		0.90%	-1.21%	-1.04%	-2.22%	-1.40%	-3.61%	-2.97%	-3.84%	-1.89%	-4.42%	-1.83%
Max Increase		-0.82%	-8.52%	-6.99%	-4.76%	-10.66%	-10.05%	-6.85%	-9.81%	-6.00%	-9.51%	-3.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	10	8	7	8	7	3	14	8	9	5
2017 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	55.10	54.43	54.05	53.49	56.55	54.75	59.23	60.21	58.19	57.56	57.22	54.93
Low	50.67	47.32	46.26	48.71	51.76	48.09	53.85	55.69	55.41	50.55	51.37	46.98
Close/Last	53.46	47.87	50.07	53.39	51.95	54.33	58.82	56.54	57.10	53.98	52.37	50.76