MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		13	24	24	24	27	27	27	27	28	29	29
Closed Higher		8	17	12	11	12	13	12	12	17	18	18
Exceeded High		6	16	10	10	7	11	11	12	16	17	16
Scenario Percentage		75%	94%	83%	91%	58%	85%	92%	100%	94%	94%	89%
Avg Max Increase		7.93%	8.35%	10.35%	9.21%	7.73%	8.04%	10.38%	11.65%	11.80%	12.22%	6.38%
Max Increase		17.79%	21.34%	28.84%	20.55%	13.03%	17.74%	22.29%	27.51%	30.75%	26.78%	21.66%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	17	15	12	21	15	17	13	18	15	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.94%	-0.68%	-1.36%	-1.45%	-1.73%	-2.16%	-2.25%	-3.15%	-2.75%	-3.75%	-1.75%
Max Decline		-11.06%	-7.84%	-5.52%	-4.92%	-3.43%	-8.71%	-8.65%	-11.14%	-15.72%	-11.90%	-8.53%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	9	5	8	7	10	7	9	8	3
2018 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		13	24	24	24	27	27	27	27	28	29	29
Closed Lower		5	7	12	13	15	14	14	14	11	11	11
Penetrated Low		3	7	7	10	13	11	10	7	4	7	6
Scenario Percentage		60%	100%	58%	77%	87%	79%	71%	50%	36%	64%	55%
Avg Max Decline		13.59%	10.16%	15.36%	14.22%	13.23%	15.26%	13.06%	10.29%	9.04%	7.28%	8.58%
Max Decline		28.05%	26.29%	43.96%	46.81%	38.13%	38.33%	26.91%	23.70%	16.15%	13.29%	13.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	19	18	15	19	15	16	10	20	9	19
Avg Max Increase		0.05%	-0.79%	-1.40%	-1.63%	-2.00%	-1.34%	-3.97%	-2.56%	-4.15%	-1.58%	-2.53%
Max Increase		-4.95%	-9.00%	-9.03%	-8.68%	-5.07%	-11.24%	-11.11%	-6.98%	-10.44%	-5.95%	-5.72%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	15	10	5	7	7	10	3	14	8	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes						Yes
Action		No		No						No
High	54.56	52.50	53.47	53.86	57.03	59.77	63.03	65.67	69.56	68.96	69.94	75.61
Low	49.77	47.17	49.18	50.66	52.73	54.26	58.84	60.42	64.97	60.91	62.62	66.29
Close/Last	51.93	50.98	53.47	53.45	55.89	59.63	61.40	65.48	67.87	64.13	68.85	74.69