MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		19	19	19	21	22	22	23	23	24	24	24
Closed Higher		12	14	9	10	8	11	10	13	15	15	15
Exceeded High		12	12	8	9	5	9	10	12	14	13	12
Scenario Percentage		100%	86%	89%	90%	63%	82%	100%	92%	93%	87%	80%
Avg Max Increase		10.12%	8.91%	11.84%	8.68%	7.51%	9.77%	11.81%	12.67%	13.74%	9.94%	5.99%
Max Increase		25.53%	16.40%	29.40%	20.85%	14.23%	23.40%	23.61%	30.09%	31.91%	16.79%	16.24%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	19	14	16	15	19	13	16	8	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.71%	-0.83%	-1.54%	-1.72%	-1.66%	-2.75%	-3.73%	-2.49%	-2.27%	-1.27%	-0.90%
Max Decline		-12.64%	-8.19%	-6.48%	-7.38%	-3.68%	-9.05%	-13.99%	-11.97%	-5.51%	-7.52%	-3.16%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	7	12	6	5	7	10	6	9	4	2
2013 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		19	19	19	21	22	22	23	23	24	24	24
Closed Lower		7	5	10	11	14	11	13	10	9	9	9
Penetrated Low		5	4	7	9	11	8	8	6	4	5	3
Scenario Percentage		71%	80%	70%	82%	79%	73%	62%	60%	44%	56%	33%
Avg Max Decline		7.08%	11.76%	13.76%	14.47%	12.71%	13.08%	11.29%	13.34%	9.88%	9.64%	6.73%
Max Decline		12.92%	26.73%	44.80%	47.72%	39.33%	28.49%	23.45%	25.33%	17.04%	14.25%	7.89%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	24	18	16	18	18	15	11	20	11	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.19%	-3.89%	-2.74%	-0.67%	-2.77%	-1.10%	-4.89%	-2.70%	-4.06%	-1.14%	-1.98%
Max Increase		-5.45%	-10.80%	-10.12%	-2.84%	-5.87%	-11.77%	-11.85%	-7.09%	-10.78%	-1.72%	-3.88%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	24	14	4	8	10	12	4	19	2	1
2013 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		No			Yes	Yes		No		Yes		Not Yet
High	113.99	99.90	104.37	112.27	113.83	111.12	109.20	109.20	113.13	116.67	110.38	111.53
Low	98.68	90.92	94.69	100.49	103.64	103.43	102.10	103.60	106.92	109.05	106.50	96.75
Close/Last	99.07	97.71	101.38	110.72	108.05	104.84	108.22	107.94	112.94	109.55	109.79	102.37