MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		19	20	20	23	23	23	24	24	25	25	25
Closed Higher		8	13	15	13	11	10	12	11	15	16	14
Exceeded High		7	13	14	11	9	7	10	10	13	14	11
Scenario Percentage		88%	100%	93%	85%	82%	70%	83%	91%	87%	88%	79%
Avg Max Increase		9.82%	9.95%	8.41%	9.41%	9.03%	7.45%	9.32%	12.99%	14.94%	13.07%	8.38%
Max Increase		16.30%	24.89%	17.56%	29.43%	21.10%	14.65%	23.89%	24.67%	32.80%	37.14%	20.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	18	15	17	14	19	16	19	13	8	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.56%	-1.34%	-0.93%	-1.16%	-1.66%	-1.75%	-2.62%	-3.77%	-2.60%	-1.92%	-0.96%
Max Decline		-3.56%	-11.46%	-8.19%	-7.43%	-8.00%	-3.80%	-9.12%	-13.71%	-12.55%	-6.05%	-4.00%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	7	6	9	5	8	8	11	8	7	2
2014 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		19	20	20	23	23	23	24	24	25	25	25
Closed Lower		11	7	5	10	12	13	12	13	10	9	11
Penetrated Low		4	5	4	8	10	10	9	8	7	4	7
Scenario Percentage		36%	71%	80%	80%	83%	77%	75%	62%	70%	44%	64%
Avg Max Decline		6.99%	6.98%	11.53%	12.17%	12.57%	14.24%	15.22%	11.87%	12.24%	9.02%	8.42%
Max Decline		10.73%	12.92%	27.01%	45.15%	48.62%	40.58%	29.33%	23.65%	26.99%	17.82%	14.01%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	13	20	20	16	19	18	15	10	16	6
Avg Max Increase		-0.91%	-0.78%	-4.07%	-2.74%	-1.39%	-2.58%	-2.87%	-5.09%	-2.46%	-4.79%	-1.07%
Max Increase		-1.98%	-5.47%	-11.39%	-11.11%	-6.55%	-6.78%	-15.55%	-12.81%	-7.28%	-11.92%	-1.82%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	6	24	16	9	5	14	12	3	19	1
2014 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes				Yes		Yes
Action		No				Yes				Yes		Yes
High	105.26	101.55	103.10	103.86	109.37	108.03	108.25	110.17	111.63	110.42	110.47	111.87
Low	95.95	96.78	97.77	99.33	100.98	102.76	102.65	102.64	106.95	104.48	104.33	105.41
Close/Last	98.96	97.72	98.78	103.21	106.46	103.91	106.69	108.54	109.92	105.37	108.63	107.76