MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		14	24	25	25	27	28	28	29	30	30	30
Closed Higher		10	16	11	16	16	16	16	12	15	15	16
Exceeded High		9	13	10	14	16	12	13	8	14	14	12
Scenario Percentage		90%	81%	91%	88%	100%	75%	81%	67%	93%	93%	75%
Avg Max Increase		10.39%	9.83%	8.57%	9.92%	8.45%	11.07%	9.07%	8.17%	9.88%	11.63%	9.00%
Max Increase		18.62%	32.37%	17.73%	26.05%	19.09%	29.92%	21.56%	15.12%	23.87%	26.35%	18.46%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	12	16	17	17	15	11	19	15	17	18
Avg Max Decline		-0.58%	-0.88%	-1.49%	-1.82%	-1.31%	-1.91%	-1.66%	-1.81%	-2.59%	-4.27%	-1.97%
Max Decline		-6.95%	-5.27%	-5.94%	-12.99%	-8.42%	-8.52%	-8.77%	-4.02%	-9.20%	-17.83%	-7.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	5	10	5	7	6	5	6	6	11	4
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		14	24	25	25	27	28	28	29	30	30	30
Closed Lower		4	8	14	9	10	12	12	17	15	15	14
Penetrated Low		2	4	10	6	9	9	10	15	12	10	6
Scenario Percentage		50%	50%	71%	67%	90%	75%	83%	88%	80%	67%	43%
Avg Max Decline		5.29%	9.94%	7.70%	11.17%	9.71%	13.08%	14.86%	17.24%	19.36%	14.68%	11.89%
Max Decline		8.38%	20.66%	18.43%	30.53%	27.27%	45.74%	49.60%	42.24%	40.21%	27.77%	17.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		4	19	16	16	18	20	15	18	18	15	16
Avg Max Increase		-2.52%	-3.12%	-1.18%	-0.95%	-2.67%	-2.97%	-1.92%	-2.46%	-3.37%	-5.13%	-3.26%
Max Increase		-5.27%	-5.85%	-3.72%	-5.52%	-12.39%	-12.21%	-9.45%	-9.01%	-14.34%	-14.29%	-7.51%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	11	7	7	15	14	5	7	11	7	5
2019 Contract Condition						Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action						Yes			Yes	Yes	No
High	64.91	65.92	70.05	76.56	76.52	77.22	77.07	81.83	85.27	75.08	64.08	62.99
Low	59.16	60.54	63.44	68.40	70.25	70.79	70.75	74.30	74.63	58.25	50.48	52.76
Close/Last	61.16	65.22	70.05	74.69	76.20	73.91	76.38	81.24	75.08	59.69	54.02	60.84