MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		12	22	23	23	25	26	26	27	28	28	28
Closed Higher		9	15	10	15	15	15	14	11	14	14	14
Exceeded High		8	12	9	13	15	11	11	7	13	13	11
Scenario Percentage		89%	80%	90%	87%	100%	73%	79%	64%	93%	93%	79%
Avg Max Increase		9.51%	9.88%	9.14%	10.58%	8.47%	11.02%	9.03%	7.85%	9.57%	12.02%	8.79%
Max Increase		18.62%	32.37%	17.73%	26.05%	19.09%	29.92%	21.56%	15.12%	23.87%	26.35%	18.46%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	12	17	18	16	17	13	18	15	17	18
Avg Max Decline		-0.32%	-0.76%	-0.99%	-1.74%	-0.99%	-1.83%	-1.65%	-1.85%	-2.63%	-4.53%	-2.09%
Max Decline		-6.95%	-5.27%	-3.56%	-12.99%	-8.42%	-8.52%	-8.77%	-4.02%	-9.20%	-17.83%	-7.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	6	9	5	6	6	5	7	6	12	4
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		12	22	23	23	25	26	26	27	28	28	28
Closed Lower		3	7	13	8	9	11	12	16	14	14	14
Penetrated Low		1	3	9	6	8	9	10	14	11	10	6
Scenario Percentage		33%	43%	69%	75%	89%	82%	83%	88%	79%	71%	43%
Avg Max Decline		2.20%	9.27%	7.43%	11.17%	10.39%	13.08%	14.86%	16.13%	19.72%	14.68%	11.89%
Max Decline		2.20%	20.66%	18.43%	30.53%	27.27%	45.74%	49.60%	42.24%	40.21%	27.77%	17.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		3	19	16	16	18	20	15	18	17	15	16
Avg Max Increase		0.23%	-2.95%	-1.19%	-0.95%	-2.82%	-2.97%	-1.92%	-2.63%	-3.01%	-5.13%	-3.26%
Max Increase		0.23%	-5.85%	-3.72%	-5.52%	-12.39%	-12.21%	-9.45%	-9.01%	-14.34%	-14.29%	-7.51%
Avg Days to Max Increase		1	7	8	7	16	14	5	7	12	7	5
2017 Contract Condition						Yes			Yes			Yes
Action						Yes			Yes			Not Yet
High	42.45	46.60	50.11	52.74	54.64	53.75	53.31	52.25	55.63	53.58	58.78	59.02
Low	38.18	42.16	41.65	47.09	49.68	45.43	44.40	47.34	50.29	46.22	52.72	54.20
Close/Last	42.45	44.76	49.71	52.08	52.39	46.41	48.88	52.14	50.47	53.08	57.49	55.58