MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		19	22	22	23	25	25	26	26	28	28	28
Closed Higher		13	16	15	10	15	15	15	14	13	14	13
Exceeded High		13	15	13	9	13	14	11	11	9	13	11
Scenario Percentage		100%	94%	87%	90%	87%	93%	73%	79%	69%	93%	85%
Avg Max Increase		9.72%	9.00%	9.57%	9.22%	11.16%	9.67%	11.76%	9.49%	9.08%	9.85%	8.23%
Max Increase		20.68%	19.57%	34.33%	17.69%	27.26%	21.33%	30.49%	22.04%	15.29%	23.85%	16.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	18	12	16	19	18	17	14	21	15	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.95%	-2.36%	-1.23%	-1.35%	-1.76%	-1.05%	-1.87%	-1.79%	-1.71%	-2.75%	-1.54%
Max Decline		-13.01%	-8.68%	-5.58%	-3.50%	-13.38%	-8.95%	-10.08%	-9.44%	-4.38%	-9.25%	-6.48%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	9	6	8	6	7	6	5	12	6	4
2017 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		19	22	22	23	25	25	26	26	28	28	28
Closed Lower		6	6	7	13	10	10	11	12	15	14	15
Penetrated Low		2	2	3	7	8	9	8	10	14	11	8
Scenario Percentage		33%	33%	43%	54%	80%	90%	73%	83%	93%	79%	53%
Avg Max Decline		7.83%	1.54%	9.56%	9.01%	9.88%	10.05%	14.90%	15.49%	16.60%	20.95%	16.86%
Max Decline		8.33%	1.85%	21.38%	19.16%	31.22%	27.63%	46.39%	50.65%	44.54%	40.79%	33.48%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	2	19	20	15	18	20	15	18	19	18
Avg Max Increase		-1.13%	1.40%	-2.66%	-1.44%	-0.67%	-2.61%	-3.40%	-1.95%	-3.65%	-2.93%	-3.75%
Max Increase		-2.15%	1.23%	-6.05%	-3.06%	-5.56%	-13.38%	-12.67%	-9.81%	-10.38%	-12.11%	-11.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase		18	1	7	6	6	15	17	5	6	11	5
2017 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes			Yes
Action		No					Yes			Yes
High	45.87	42.54	46.17	49.90	52.75	54.62	53.46	53.01	51.90	55.27	53.03	58.53
Low	35.13	37.65	41.55	40.96	46.73	49.47	44.96	43.95	46.95	49.75	45.51	52.20
Close/Last	42.84	42.04	44.38	49.49	51.89	52.11	45.99	48.51	51.71	49.92	52.53	56.82