MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		18	19	19	22	22	23	23	24	25	25	25
Closed Higher		11	15	12	9	12	16	13	14	13	13	13
Exceeded High		11	14	10	8	12	15	10	11	9	11	11
Scenario Percentage		100%	93%	83%	89%	100%	94%	77%	79%	69%	85%	85%
Avg Max Increase		11.64%	8.52%	10.82%	9.64%	10.66%	9.96%	12.09%	9.49%	9.70%	9.87%	6.88%
Max Increase		21.82%	20.51%	33.83%	17.60%	22.05%	24.00%	31.02%	22.44%	15.81%	22.22%	12.56%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	14	11	17	18	19	18	14	20	12	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.74%	-2.16%	-0.83%	-1.31%	-2.12%	-1.34%	-2.03%	-2.86%	-1.83%	-2.73%	-3.06%
Max Decline		-3.73%	-8.86%	-4.41%	-3.72%	-13.67%	-9.19%	-11.24%	-10.89%	-4.71%	-9.39%	-22.00%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	10	7	8	10	6	9	5	9	6	3
2014 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes			Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		18	19	19	22	22	23	23	24	25	25	25
Closed Lower		7	4	6	13	10	6	10	10	12	12	12
Penetrated Low		3	2	3	6	7	5	8	8	11	9	4
Scenario Percentage		43%	50%	50%	46%	70%	83%	80%	80%	92%	75%	33%
Avg Max Decline		6.49%	3.35%	9.87%	7.78%	6.79%	11.39%	12.91%	15.09%	16.15%	16.03%	9.26%
Max Decline		9.89%	5.48%	21.89%	12.56%	13.81%	27.96%	47.35%	51.70%	47.31%	34.87%	15.13%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	4	20	16	17	20	20	13	18	15	11
Avg Max Increase		-0.45%	-0.21%	-2.83%	-0.86%	-2.17%	-5.07%	-3.68%	-1.15%	-2.71%	-1.57%	-2.15%
Max Increase		-2.07%	-0.37%	-6.31%	-2.46%	-9.35%	-14.85%	-13.51%	-4.02%	-4.75%	-8.69%	-6.08%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	1	8	3	12	24	16	5	4	3	2
2014 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes		No	No				Yes
High	107.65	110.60	105.70	106.63	103.06	104.40	105.72	112.24	110.66	110.03	111.14	112.80
Low	103.57	104.47	102.91	96.00	96.66	97.82	99.80	102.29	104.65	104.42	103.07	107.61
Close/Last	107.65	104.47	105.70	99.88	98.52	99.78	104.67	108.90	105.78	108.17	109.33	110.80