MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		14	25	25	25	28	28	28	30	30	30	31
Closed Higher		6	12	16	18	19	12	16	20	17	17	16
Exceeded High		4	11	15	17	16	11	14	19	13	13	8
Scenario Percentage		67%	92%	94%	94%	84%	92%	88%	95%	76%	76%	50%
Avg Max Increase		10.69%	10.73%	10.08%	10.14%	9.90%	8.55%	9.48%	13.56%	15.84%	9.23%	6.27%
Max Increase		16.45%	25.27%	22.49%	21.59%	33.70%	17.40%	18.83%	79.27%	47.85%	22.95%	11.63%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	15	21	18	15	17	18	19	15	12	16
Avg Max Decline		-1.30%	-2.40%	-2.24%	-2.80%	-1.77%	-1.94%	-2.47%	-2.29%	-2.02%	-3.55%	-1.89%
Max Decline		-6.27%	-9.46%	-13.58%	-9.03%	-6.16%	-6.31%	-14.00%	-13.44%	-12.35%	-11.87%	-5.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	5	11	7	7	7	8	7	7	5	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		14	25	25	25	28	28	28	30	30	30	31
Closed Lower		8	13	9	7	9	16	12	10	13	13	15
Penetrated Low		5	6	3	4	5	10	8	8	9	10	12
Scenario Percentage		63%	46%	33%	57%	56%	63%	67%	80%	69%	77%	80%
Avg Max Decline		17.74%	7.64%	6.83%	5.44%	10.43%	9.71%	10.39%	12.01%	14.22%	16.61%	13.84%
Max Decline		24.71%	15.91%	10.97%	11.54%	22.43%	20.32%	32.60%	28.31%	48.27%	52.96%	29.41%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	12	15	9	19	18	15	19	20	15	21
Avg Max Increase		-1.39%	-1.16%	-2.93%	-1.65%	-3.34%	-1.38%	-0.68%	-4.09%	-3.11%	-2.16%	-2.33%
Max Increase		-4.66%	-5.47%	-6.17%	-5.91%	-7.20%	-3.31%	-5.68%	-23.15%	-14.60%	-10.46%	-6.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	2	19	8	10	5	6	11	12	5	4
2019 Contract Condition				Yes					Yes			Yes
Action				No					Yes			Yes
High	61.09	63.54	66.58	66.10	67.22	72.32	78.27	77.98	78.40	77.86	82.88	86.27
Low	57.69	59.17	63.20	59.42	60.75	64.11	69.69	71.00	71.26	70.93	74.98	74.58
Close/Last	59.68	63.32	65.45	62.01	66.29	71.54	75.78	77.70	74.38	77.13	82.24	75.04