MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		12	23	23	23	26	26	26	28	28	28	29
Closed Higher		5	10	15	16	17	11	14	19	16	15	15
Exceeded High		3	9	14	15	15	10	12	18	12	12	8
Scenario Percentage		60%	90%	93%	94%	88%	91%	86%	95%	75%	80%	53%
Avg Max Increase		12.53%	11.63%	10.16%	9.72%	9.93%	9.06%	10.63%	13.84%	16.18%	9.59%	6.27%
Max Increase		16.45%	25.27%	22.49%	21.59%	33.70%	17.40%	18.83%	79.27%	47.85%	22.95%	11.63%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	13	20	17	15	17	19	19	16	13	16
Avg Max Decline		-1.67%	-1.92%	-2.17%	-2.98%	-1.72%	-1.51%	-2.33%	-1.67%	-1.95%	-3.83%	-1.89%
Max Decline		-6.27%	-9.46%	-13.58%	-9.03%	-6.16%	-4.35%	-14.00%	-9.60%	-12.35%	-11.87%	-5.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	4	12	7	7	6	9	7	7	6	3
2017 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		12	23	23	23	26	26	26	28	28	28	29
Closed Lower		7	13	8	7	9	15	12	9	12	13	14
Penetrated Low		5	6	3	4	5	9	8	7	9	10	11
Scenario Percentage		71%	46%	38%	57%	56%	60%	67%	78%	75%	77%	79%
Avg Max Decline		17.74%	7.64%	6.83%	5.44%	10.43%	10.26%	10.39%	13.06%	14.22%	16.61%	12.97%
Max Decline		24.71%	15.91%	10.97%	11.54%	22.43%	20.32%	32.60%	28.31%	48.27%	52.96%	29.41%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	12	15	9	19	20	15	19	20	15	20
Avg Max Increase		-1.39%	-1.16%	-2.93%	-1.65%	-3.34%	-1.36%	-0.68%	-4.47%	-3.11%	-2.16%	-2.54%
Max Increase		-4.66%	-5.47%	-6.17%	-5.91%	-7.20%	-3.31%	-5.68%	-23.15%	-14.60%	-10.46%	-6.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	2	19	8	10	5	6	12	12	5	4
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	No	No					Yes			Yes
High	58.09	52.11	45.06	41.57	45.65	49.88	52.35	54.31	52.77	52.26	51.03	54.32
Low	51.49	43.58	33.85	36.50	40.70	40.16	46.03	48.96	44.03	42.99	46.09	48.45
Close/Last	51.74	44.96	41.95	41.15	43.61	49.05	51.47	51.48	45.07	47.68	50.75	48.61