MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		30	32	33	35	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Higher		14	16	17	24	22	17	18	23	20	21	14
Exceeded High		13	13	16	23	16	13	17	19	18	18	9
Scenario Percentage		93%	81%	94%	96%	73%	76%	94%	83%	90%	86%	64%
Avg Max Increase		8.18%	10.52%	10.34%	9.96%	8.13%	9.36%	10.64%	13.48%	10.16%	8.08%	7.11%
Max Increase		21.40%	28.35%	23.37%	42.04%	28.68%	24.91%	24.98%	74.87%	38.50%	21.61%	18.25%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	14	14	16	17	15	18	17	14	13	17
Avg Max Decline		-1.54%	-1.52%	-1.82%	-1.78%	-2.03%	-1.52%	-3.11%	-2.10%	-2.88%	-3.06%	-1.59%
Max Decline		-6.64%	-5.08%	-12.74%	-7.19%	-11.13%	-5.77%	-15.93%	-8.30%	-14.50%	-13.85%	-2.99%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	6	8	5	8	5	12	8	7	5	3
2015 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes				Yes
Action				Yes		Yes				No

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		30	32	33	35	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Lower		16	16	16	11	15	20	19	14	17	16	23
Penetrated Low		12	10	10	7	8	14	15	8	12	14	17
Scenario Percentage		75%	63%	63%	64%	53%	70%	79%	57%	71%	88%	74%
Avg Max Decline		10.07%	10.44%	5.79%	6.37%	7.37%	8.02%	9.16%	10.15%	12.01%	11.46%	9.83%
Max Decline		22.42%	34.29%	19.09%	14.29%	20.65%	18.72%	27.10%	24.22%	41.23%	43.86%	21.31%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	15	9	10	17	18	18	19	16	14	18
Avg Max Increase		-4.13%	-1.46%	-1.76%	-2.18%	-3.56%	-1.04%	-2.03%	-3.82%	-1.99%	-4.00%	-2.22%
Max Increase		-9.89%	-6.11%	-10.40%	-5.43%	-6.95%	-6.42%	-7.66%	-19.25%	-5.86%	-20.44%	-6.10%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	4	9	2	17	4	9	17	12	8	4
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No		No		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
High	255.34	227.21	192.92	202.75	202.80	205.03	211.88	202.41	194.90	173.86	170.68	166.43
Low	219.64	187.29	169.62	177.85	176.53	179.39	191.19	189.29	163.34	142.71	152.10	142.97
Close/Last	220.50	191.44	181.47	202.30	182.86	204.85	200.97	195.77	164.48	173.54	155.68	151.67