MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		31	35	37	38	41	42	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		17	18	18	21	27	27	21	22	26	23	26
Exceeded High		13	17	14	19	26	21	16	21	23	21	20
Scenario Percentage		76%	94%	78%	90%	96%	78%	76%	95%	88%	91%	77%
Avg Max Increase		9.37%	8.21%	11.67%	10.03%	12.25%	10.51%	9.26%	9.64%	12.96%	10.24%	5.38%
Max Increase		17.86%	23.61%	28.01%	23.28%	51.12%	53.09%	23.81%	24.96%	76.22%	39.38%	15.65%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	13	16	18	16	14	16	18	13	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.08%	-1.38%	-1.09%	-2.13%	-2.40%	-2.12%	-1.44%	-3.34%	-3.51%	-2.99%	-2.13%
Max Decline		-7.40%	-6.74%	-4.81%	-12.84%	-8.88%	-11.99%	-5.77%	-16.48%	-13.59%	-15.12%	-13.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	4	9	7	7	7	12	10	8	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		31	35	37	38	41	42	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		14	17	19	17	14	15	22	21	17	20	17
Penetrated Low		11	12	12	10	11	9	16	16	10	11	12
Scenario Percentage		79%	71%	63%	59%	79%	60%	73%	76%	59%	55%	71%
Avg Max Decline		12.38%	13.28%	12.41%	8.49%	8.31%	7.55%	8.15%	9.81%	11.00%	13.50%	8.12%
Max Decline		32.82%	32.60%	35.24%	38.46%	18.99%	20.84%	19.14%	27.27%	23.89%	41.36%	34.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	18	16	11	16	15	17	16	17	10	14
Avg Max Increase		-1.90%	-3.48%	-1.82%	-1.78%	-4.06%	-3.89%	-1.38%	-2.12%	-3.45%	-1.63%	-2.02%
Max Increase		-5.71%	-10.05%	-6.01%	-5.51%	-13.16%	-7.55%	-6.77%	-7.93%	-19.87%	-3.72%	-6.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	7	6	8	9	15	4	9	11	9	4
2021 Contract Condition						Yes					Yes
Action						No					No
High	132.85	144.86	154.06	164.13	187.95	195.73	198.60	207.99	219.23	220.84	219.32	236.62
Low	118.98	118.24	142.35	149.69	159.91	175.70	177.29	192.31	204.90	196.27	189.65	208.54
Close/Last	120.80	144.14	152.05	160.93	182.39	179.01	193.55	204.17	213.03	219.48	212.42	233.85