MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		30	34	36	37	40	41	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Higher		16	17	17	20	27	26	20	21	25	23	25
Exceeded High		12	16	13	18	26	20	15	20	22	21	19
Scenario Percentage		75%	94%	76%	90%	96%	77%	75%	95%	88%	91%	76%
Avg Max Increase		9.00%	7.24%	10.90%	10.10%	12.25%	10.37%	9.33%	9.94%	13.20%	10.29%	5.19%
Max Increase		17.86%	18.20%	28.01%	23.28%	51.12%	53.09%	23.81%	24.96%	76.22%	39.38%	15.65%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	14	13	15	18	15	15	17	18	13	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.07%	-1.37%	-1.12%	-2.05%	-2.40%	-2.19%	-1.56%	-3.43%	-3.05%	-2.99%	-2.20%
Max Decline		-7.40%	-6.74%	-4.81%	-12.84%	-8.88%	-11.99%	-5.77%	-16.48%	-11.34%	-15.12%	-13.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	4	9	7	8	7	12	9	8	3
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		30	34	36	37	40	41	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Lower		14	17	19	17	13	15	22	21	17	19	17
Penetrated Low		11	12	12	10	11	9	16	16	10	12	12
Scenario Percentage		79%	71%	63%	59%	85%	60%	73%	76%	59%	63%	71%
Avg Max Decline		12.38%	13.28%	12.41%	8.49%	8.31%	7.55%	8.15%	9.81%	11.00%	12.81%	8.51%
Max Decline		32.82%	32.60%	35.24%	38.46%	18.99%	20.84%	19.14%	27.27%	23.89%	41.36%	34.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	18	16	11	16	15	17	16	17	14	16
Avg Max Increase		-1.90%	-3.48%	-1.82%	-1.78%	-4.06%	-3.89%	-1.38%	-2.12%	-3.45%	-2.07%	-2.35%
Max Increase		-5.71%	-10.05%	-6.01%	-5.51%	-13.16%	-7.55%	-6.77%	-7.93%	-19.87%	-6.87%	-6.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	7	6	8	9	15	4	9	11	11	5
2020 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	No				Yes	Yes
High	188.63	190.12	199.12	203.90	174.14	160.81	131.01	117.26	130.75	132.52	133.62	126.95
Low	175.10	180.82	182.80	167.00	150.22	108.72	93.79	97.09	112.20	121.00	123.22	107.92
Close/Last	180.38	182.75	195.24	167.87	152.41	115.77	102.33	114.64	123.92	125.75	124.03	115.22