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ScenarioSM Study for November NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of May 10, 2021 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep |
Tested Years | 30 | 34 | 36 | 37 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | |
Closed Higher | 16 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 27 | 26 | 20 | 21 | 25 | 23 | 25 | |
Exceeded High | 12 | 16 | 13 | 18 | 26 | 20 | 15 | 20 | 22 | 21 | 19 | |
Scenario Percentage | 75% | 94% | 76% | 90% | 96% | 77% | 75% | 95% | 88% | 91% | 76% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.00% | 7.24% | 10.90% | 10.10% | 12.25% | 10.37% | 9.33% | 9.94% | 13.20% | 10.29% | 5.19% | |
Max Increase | 17.86% | 18.20% | 28.01% | 23.28% | 51.12% | 53.09% | 23.81% | 24.96% | 76.22% | 39.38% | 15.65% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 13 | 13 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.07% | -1.37% | -1.12% | -2.05% | -2.40% | -2.19% | -1.56% | -3.43% | -3.05% | -2.99% | -2.20% | |
Max Decline | -7.40% | -6.74% | -4.81% | -12.84% | -8.88% | -11.99% | -5.77% | -16.48% | -11.34% | -15.12% | -13.24% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 3 | |
2020 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.