MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		31	34	36	38	38	39	39	41	41	41	41
Closed Higher		13	17	17	17	19	25	25	19	20	25	22
Exceeded High		8	14	16	12	17	24	19	15	19	21	17
Scenario Percentage		62%	82%	94%	71%	89%	96%	76%	79%	95%	84%	77%
Avg Max Increase		6.62%	8.83%	7.47%	11.79%	10.18%	11.04%	8.30%	9.62%	10.44%	14.38%	8.87%
Max Increase		10.87%	18.00%	18.64%	28.21%	23.24%	41.86%	27.24%	23.89%	26.34%	79.92%	40.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		25	15	15	14	15	17	15	15	18	15	20
Avg Max Decline		-1.86%	-1.08%	-1.40%	-1.27%	-1.86%	-2.66%	-2.55%	-2.10%	-3.63%	-2.41%	-1.64%
Max Decline		-2.90%	-7.43%	-7.00%	-4.92%	-13.08%	-9.29%	-13.06%	-6.25%	-16.96%	-11.42%	-7.16%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	7	8	5	8	5	8	7	13	6	4
2020 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		31	34	36	38	38	39	39	41	41	41	41
Closed Lower		18	17	19	21	19	14	14	21	21	16	19
Penetrated Low		15	13	13	14	12	11	8	15	16	11	10
Scenario Percentage		83%	76%	68%	67%	63%	79%	57%	71%	76%	69%	53%
Avg Max Decline		11.61%	13.60%	13.66%	13.15%	8.91%	8.66%	8.60%	8.50%	9.17%	9.87%	8.88%
Max Decline		36.46%	33.28%	34.01%	36.25%	40.53%	20.80%	20.97%	19.56%	27.66%	23.53%	19.20%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	20	17	16	12	16	15	16	19	17	18
Avg Max Increase		-1.64%	-1.61%	-3.40%	-1.15%	-2.37%	-4.25%	-3.71%	-1.45%	-2.93%	-3.72%	-1.88%
Max Increase		-5.11%	-5.77%	-9.83%	-6.11%	-9.26%	-14.09%	-7.19%	-7.37%	-8.21%	-21.03%	-3.28%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	6	8	4	9	9	13	4	12	10	7
2020 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		No			Yes	Yes	Yes	No				Yes
High	194.53	188.93	189.92	199.97	205.00	173.36	159.92	129.67	115.53	129.07	131.19	131.92
Low	177.18	174.96	181.40	182.44	166.38	148.91	106.60	90.02	94.32	109.75	119.03	121.03
Close/Last	180.37	180.19	182.61	195.49	167.22	151.36	113.66	99.52	112.39	122.21	123.91	121.73