MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	20	23	25	27	27	28	28	30	30	30	30
Closed Higher	8	9	12	12	12	20	19	16	15	18	16
Exceeded High	5	7	12	8	11	19	15	13	15	14	14
Scenario Percentage	62%	78%	100%	67%	92%	95%	79%	81%	100%	78%	88%
Avg Max Increase	7.29%	9.27%	7.45%	13.12%	12.44%	11.23%	8.93%	9.46%	11.46%	17.78%	9.70%
Max Increase	10.87%	15.59%	17.88%	28.21%	23.24%	41.86%	27.24%	23.89%	26.34%	79.92%	40.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase	26	12	15	14	13	18	17	16	17	16	19
Avg Max Decline	-1.68%	-0.86%	-1.31%	-1.62%	-1.21%	-2.66%	-2.62%	-2.10%	-3.67%	-1.78%	-1.49%
Max Decline	-2.90%	-2.23%	-7.00%	-4.92%	-4.83%	-9.29%	-13.06%	-6.25%	-16.96%	-8.90%	-7.16%
Avg Days to Max Decline	8	7	9	5	9	6	9	8	13	6	4
2009 Contract Condition						Yes		Yes	Yes
Action						Yes		Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	20	23	25	27	27	28	28	30	30	30	30
Closed Lower	12	14	13	15	15	8	9	13	15	12	14
Penetrated Low	11	10	10	11	10	6	6	9	12	8	10
Scenario Percentage	92%	71%	77%	73%	67%	75%	67%	69%	80%	67%	71%
Avg Max Decline	10.27%	10.95%	13.09%	12.30%	5.89%	6.13%	6.16%	8.05%	7.27%	10.27%	18.00%
Max Decline	36.46%	25.20%	34.01%	34.78%	19.48%	8.79%	8.47%	15.09%	19.21%	23.53%	48.42%
Avg Days To Max Decline	19	20	19	16	9	14	13	13	20	17	19
Avg Max Increase	-2.08%	-0.91%	-3.75%	-0.35%	-1.99%	-2.87%	-3.76%	-1.04%	-2.48%	-4.89%	-5.58%
Max Increase	-5.11%	-5.77%	-9.83%	-3.23%	-9.26%	-5.66%	-7.19%	-7.37%	-8.21%	-21.03%	-23.33%
Avg Days to Max Increase	5	6	9	3	7	11	14	2	10	11	14
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		No			No	Yes
High	299.40	236.00	186.09	181.78	158.25	164.63	160.17	179.55	197.54	192.19	199.77
Low	211.00	183.60	142.66	149.60	128.20	129.85	142.75	149.92	180.00	156.30	178.25
Close/Last	224.52	190.71	165.51	156.95	141.78	151.24	147.00	179.27	188.22	186.29	180.85