MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	18	21	23	25	25	26	26	28	28	28	28
Closed Higher	7	9	11	12	11	18	18	14	13	18	16
Exceeded High	4	7	11	8	10	17	14	11	13	14	13
Scenario Percentage	57%	78%	100%	67%	91%	94%	78%	79%	100%	78%	81%
Avg Max Increase	7.27%	9.27%	7.30%	13.12%	11.64%	8.98%	7.62%	9.08%	12.29%	17.72%	9.97%
Max Increase	10.87%	15.59%	17.88%	28.21%	23.24%	19.17%	16.75%	23.89%	26.34%	79.92%	40.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase	26	12	14	14	12	18	16	16	19	16	18
Avg Max Decline	-1.52%	-0.86%	-0.80%	-1.62%	-1.13%	-2.56%	-2.63%	-2.21%	-2.72%	-1.78%	-1.05%
Max Decline	-2.90%	-2.23%	-3.85%	-4.92%	-4.83%	-9.29%	-13.06%	-6.25%	-9.27%	-8.90%	-5.04%
Avg Days to Max Decline	7	7	8	5	10	5	9	9	13	6	4
2007 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	18	21	23	25	25	26	26	28	28	28	28
Closed Lower	11	12	12	13	14	8	8	13	15	10	12
Penetrated Low	10	9	9	10	10	6	6	9	12	7	8
Scenario Percentage	91%	75%	75%	77%	71%	75%	75%	69%	80%	70%	67%
Avg Max Decline	7.65%	9.36%	12.03%	11.70%	5.89%	6.13%	6.16%	8.05%	7.27%	8.38%	16.10%
Max Decline	14.67%	23.72%	34.01%	34.78%	19.48%	8.79%	8.47%	15.09%	19.21%	22.88%	48.42%
Avg Days To Max Decline	19	20	19	15	9	14	13	13	20	17	16
Avg Max Increase	-1.77%	-1.29%	-3.07%	-0.30%	-1.99%	-2.87%	-3.76%	-1.04%	-2.48%	-5.27%	-6.07%
Max Increase	-3.58%	-5.77%	-7.23%	-3.23%	-9.26%	-5.66%	-7.19%	-7.37%	-8.21%	-21.03%	-22.44%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	7	9	2	7	11	14	2	10	13	12
2007 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes
Action	Yes		Yes	No			Yes	No			Yes
High	194.82	194.70	194.74	182.95	188.03	199.11	202.55	202.18	210.07	217.88	213.88
Low	183.70	182.16	182.98	162.00	173.00	178.65	189.79	188.30	195.25	205.28	195.07
Close/Last	185.65	193.85	183.87	177.23	187.71	197.54	197.48	195.41	207.64	214.12	205.74