MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		34	37	37	38	39	40	41	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		19	17	16	18	19	18	21	28	29	23	22
Exceeded High		14	14	10	15	17	14	19	27	23	17	18
Scenario Percentage		74%	82%	63%	83%	89%	78%	90%	96%	79%	74%	82%
Avg Max Increase		7.77%	7.17%	9.07%	9.70%	10.36%	13.83%	11.83%	12.13%	10.73%	11.07%	6.02%
Max Increase		25.68%	17.53%	19.33%	18.14%	25.47%	42.54%	33.63%	41.95%	30.49%	24.23%	12.36%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	15	26	17	17	11	16	17	16	16	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.46%	-1.69%	-2.45%	-1.20%	-1.81%	-1.41%	-2.02%	-2.64%	-2.92%	-2.82%	-1.72%
Max Decline		-4.78%	-8.34%	-4.20%	-7.91%	-7.49%	-6.01%	-13.58%	-9.65%	-15.01%	-10.81%	-3.73%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	4	12	6	8	4	9	8	8	7	4
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		34	37	37	38	39	40	41	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		15	20	21	20	20	22	20	15	14	20	21
Penetrated Low		9	17	18	16	14	14	12	12	9	15	14
Scenario Percentage		60%	85%	86%	80%	70%	64%	60%	80%	64%	75%	67%
Avg Max Decline		12.11%	9.83%	12.89%	14.25%	14.94%	13.89%	10.46%	9.59%	8.80%	8.43%	8.29%
Max Decline		37.28%	39.95%	37.73%	34.53%	36.41%	38.82%	45.89%	25.01%	21.32%	19.78%	19.71%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	16	19	18	18	15	15	16	16	15	16
Avg Max Increase		-1.98%	-1.59%	-1.94%	-1.62%	-3.51%	-1.73%	-2.44%	-4.06%	-4.28%	-2.01%	-1.89%
Max Increase		-10.49%	-6.12%	-5.62%	-6.30%	-10.36%	-6.18%	-10.29%	-14.23%	-7.91%	-8.30%	-9.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	8	6	6	7	5	12	13	17	9	3
2022 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes							Yes
Action		No			Yes							Yes
High	211.94	206.96	223.90	242.13	234.55	231.16	255.01	282.04	359.50	360.45	405.47	448.98
Low	192.78	185.25	203.84	221.30	196.90	195.70	224.02	248.80	270.80	296.59	335.78	374.48
Close/Last	211.94	204.84	221.72	230.88	200.30	224.78	252.21	269.73	303.90	350.89	384.69	383.05