MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		26	29	31	31	33	34	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Higher		21	16	16	14	17	14	15	17	25	25	17
Exceeded High		18	14	12	11	13	12	12	16	24	20	10
Scenario Percentage		86%	88%	75%	79%	76%	86%	80%	94%	96%	80%	59%
Avg Max Increase		8.80%	6.66%	8.31%	9.26%	9.46%	10.05%	10.51%	11.39%	10.99%	9.75%	9.05%
Max Increase		51.79%	26.41%	26.16%	20.60%	19.67%	21.36%	27.58%	25.97%	41.58%	29.68%	17.24%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	14	16	21	16	17	12	13	15	16	17
Avg Max Decline		-0.70%	-0.84%	-1.83%	-2.22%	-1.84%	-1.98%	-1.71%	-1.33%	-2.16%	-2.94%	-1.57%
Max Decline		-7.21%	-6.28%	-8.40%	-4.74%	-8.27%	-7.42%	-6.29%	-5.57%	-6.96%	-16.05%	-7.53%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	9	5	11	7	13	5	7	8	9	7
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	No		Yes		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		26	29	31	31	33	34	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Lower		5	13	15	17	16	19	20	18	10	10	18
Penetrated Low		4	8	12	15	13	15	13	13	9	7	14
Scenario Percentage		80%	62%	80%	88%	81%	79%	65%	72%	90%	70%	78%
Avg Max Decline		9.94%	11.91%	9.63%	12.29%	13.81%	13.52%	12.08%	6.68%	8.12%	8.40%	6.03%
Max Decline		22.93%	37.63%	40.47%	38.60%	29.86%	38.04%	35.18%	20.99%	15.36%	21.22%	12.36%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	20	13	17	19	19	15	13	14	15	14
Avg Max Increase		-3.52%	-2.29%	-1.31%	-2.10%	-1.40%	-3.58%	-2.30%	-2.40%	-2.58%	-3.62%	-1.75%
Max Increase		-8.51%	-11.01%	-5.67%	-5.82%	-7.39%	-11.13%	-6.56%	-11.47%	-5.99%	-8.06%	-8.98%
Avg Days to Max Increase		19	18	7	7	10	8	7	11	6	15	4
2014 Contract Condition				Yes				Yes		Yes		Yes
Action				Yes				No		Yes		Yes
High	293.33	298.79	304.89	302.40	298.92	300.28	304.83	299.32	302.85	303.67	300.98	296.81
Low	278.25	281.94	286.50	286.40	286.36	283.28	292.85	285.95	287.15	286.94	284.20	288.19
Close/Last	282.03	296.42	299.25	289.36	291.85	297.94	301.82	289.31	296.90	292.34	292.37	288.82