MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of May 31, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		36	38	39	40	40	44	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	26	22	20	16	22	22	20	22	29	33
Exceeded High		18	23	18	14	12	16	19	15	20	28	22
Scenario Percentage		86%	88%	82%	70%	75%	73%	86%	75%	91%	97%	67%
Avg Max Increase		8.50%	8.59%	7.93%	7.72%	9.11%	11.46%	10.75%	15.01%	12.92%	12.77%	8.13%
Max Increase		22.79%	53.13%	27.06%	18.49%	21.26%	22.51%	28.09%	57.44%	50.38%	40.66%	27.15%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	15	14	16	22	17	18	13	15	15	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.89%	-1.61%	-1.19%	-1.36%	-2.29%	-2.11%	-2.08%	-2.02%	-2.44%	-2.73%	-2.03%
Max Decline		-13.80%	-12.96%	-5.65%	-6.97%	-5.28%	-8.45%	-7.83%	-6.67%	-14.35%	-9.71%	-7.64%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	9	8	4	9	6	10	4	7	5	4
2024 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	No				Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		36	38	39	40	40	44	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		15	12	17	20	24	22	23	25	23	16	12
Penetrated Low		11	9	10	16	21	19	16	17	16	13	7
Scenario Percentage		73%	75%	59%	80%	88%	86%	70%	68%	70%	81%	58%
Avg Max Decline		6.77%	8.83%	12.54%	10.86%	13.59%	13.21%	15.12%	14.42%	10.61%	10.81%	6.27%
Max Decline		25.78%	23.19%	38.38%	41.24%	39.69%	36.31%	38.28%	41.45%	54.35%	33.92%	9.55%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	19	16	18	19	18	15	14	13	13
Avg Max Increase		-2.77%	-2.98%	-2.17%	-1.93%	-2.18%	-2.32%	-3.97%	-2.41%	-2.56%	-4.57%	-1.05%
Max Increase		-7.73%	-8.83%	-12.29%	-7.00%	-6.14%	-8.57%	-11.53%	-7.28%	-10.34%	-14.01%	-5.13%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	12	14	8	5	8	10	6	10	10	2
2024 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action						Yes	Yes	No		No		Yes
High	236.41	236.06	265.48	274.37	288.22	280.33	273.31	258.66	263.79	270.31	273.47	278.27
Low	218.35	221.34	228.81	261.99	269.10	253.65	249.77	235.07	237.30	247.80	251.73	248.99
Close/Last	222.24	233.76	264.54	269.12	276.42	264.71	257.47	240.01	259.29	255.67	261.97	252.76