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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Jul 09, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   37 41 42 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   18 25 28 26 24 20 21 22 21 22 29
Exceeded High   15 22 23 21 14 13 17 20 17 20 25
Scenario Percentage   83% 88% 82% 81% 58% 65% 81% 91% 81% 91% 86%
Avg Max Increase   9.43% 8.73% 9.10% 7.74% 9.22% 9.66% 11.53% 11.42% 15.67% 16.18% 11.90%
Max Increase   25.87% 23.36% 56.36% 29.50% 19.39% 21.64% 25.04% 30.08% 66.80% 105.84% 74.34%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 17 17 16 16 22 16 17 13 14 18
Avg Max Decline   -1.05% -2.62% -2.11% -1.60% -1.47% -2.35% -1.95% -2.16% -2.06% -2.77% -2.30%
Max Decline   -4.80% -13.85% -13.07% -6.87% -7.85% -5.83% -8.29% -7.95% -7.14% -14.74% -10.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 9 10 8 5 10 6 10 5 7 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes       Yes   Yes Yes   Yes
Action     Yes       No   Yes No   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   37 41 42 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   19 16 14 19 21 25 24 23 24 23 16
Penetrated Low   12 11 10 11 15 22 22 16 16 17 11
Scenario Percentage   63% 69% 71% 58% 71% 88% 92% 70% 67% 74% 69%
Avg Max Decline   6.74% 6.05% 9.52% 11.73% 10.39% 13.69% 12.58% 14.88% 15.04% 11.21% 9.63%
Max Decline   16.98% 25.67% 23.48% 38.52% 41.64% 40.53% 37.04% 39.03% 42.35% 60.61% 42.09%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 14 17 15 14 17 17 19 16 14 13
Avg Max Increase   -0.71% -1.76% -2.54% -2.00% -2.10% -2.20% -2.62% -4.19% -3.05% -2.77% -3.80%
Max Increase   -2.79% -6.62% -9.54% -12.53% -7.04% -6.54% -9.43% -12.34% -10.85% -12.26% -13.67%
Avg Days to Max Increase   3 7 12 11 8 6 8 11 7 10 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes  
Action   Yes   Yes Yes No   Yes     Yes  
High 260.87 248.05 252.95 257.93 242.50 228.07 240.72 229.87 225.48 247.25 240.31 228.71
Low 246.29 239.81 231.97 233.81 224.42 207.57 211.35 215.09 210.54 223.79 221.50 211.75
Close/Last 249.05 240.52 249.52 240.63 227.21 215.98 221.37 215.26 224.08 231.79 226.10 227.94

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