MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		36	40	41	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	24	28	26	24	20	22	21	20	22	28
Exceeded High		15	21	23	21	14	14	18	19	17	20	24
Scenario Percentage		83%	88%	82%	81%	58%	70%	82%	90%	85%	91%	86%
Avg Max Increase		9.43%	8.98%	9.10%	7.74%	9.22%	9.93%	10.99%	11.48%	15.67%	16.18%	12.29%
Max Increase		25.87%	23.36%	56.36%	29.50%	19.39%	21.64%	25.04%	30.08%	66.80%	105.84%	74.34%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	17	17	16	16	21	16	18	13	14	18
Avg Max Decline		-1.05%	-2.79%	-2.11%	-1.60%	-1.47%	-2.18%	-1.75%	-2.27%	-2.06%	-2.77%	-2.38%
Max Decline		-4.80%	-13.85%	-13.07%	-6.87%	-7.85%	-5.83%	-8.29%	-7.95%	-7.14%	-14.74%	-10.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	9	10	8	5	9	5	10	5	7	2
2024 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No				Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		36	40	41	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	16	13	18	20	25	23	24	25	23	17
Penetrated Low		11	11	9	10	15	22	21	17	17	17	11
Scenario Percentage		61%	69%	69%	56%	75%	88%	91%	71%	68%	74%	65%
Avg Max Decline		7.03%	6.05%	9.06%	12.04%	10.39%	13.69%	13.07%	15.14%	15.10%	10.74%	9.63%
Max Decline		16.98%	25.67%	23.48%	38.52%	41.64%	40.53%	37.04%	39.03%	42.35%	60.61%	42.09%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	14	18	15	14	17	18	19	16	14	13
Avg Max Increase		-0.75%	-1.76%	-2.74%	-2.17%	-2.10%	-2.20%	-2.64%	-3.82%	-2.93%	-2.55%	-3.80%
Max Increase		-2.79%	-6.62%	-9.54%	-12.53%	-7.04%	-6.54%	-9.43%	-12.34%	-10.85%	-12.26%	-13.67%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	7	13	12	8	6	9	11	7	9	2
2024 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		No					Yes	Yes	No		Yes
High	255.60	237.30	237.27	267.73	277.34	291.52	283.95	276.19	260.86	270.37	277.88	276.66
Low	232.70	222.00	222.59	230.16	265.48	272.13	255.90	251.73	236.36	239.83	252.45	254.83
Close/Last	237.27	223.01	235.05	267.14	271.47	280.14	267.04	259.65	242.13	264.78	259.54	262.27