MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		34	38	39	42	42	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		17	22	27	24	23	19	22	21	19	22	27
Exceeded High		14	20	22	20	14	14	18	19	16	20	21
Scenario Percentage		82%	91%	81%	83%	61%	74%	82%	90%	84%	91%	78%
Avg Max Increase		9.05%	8.53%	9.10%	7.76%	9.22%	9.93%	10.99%	11.48%	16.34%	15.00%	12.30%
Max Increase		25.87%	23.36%	56.36%	29.50%	19.39%	21.64%	25.04%	30.08%	66.80%	83.44%	55.37%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	17	16	16	21	16	18	13	13	18
Avg Max Decline		-1.23%	-2.82%	-2.18%	-1.70%	-1.47%	-2.18%	-1.75%	-2.27%	-1.90%	-2.77%	-2.07%
Max Decline		-4.80%	-13.85%	-13.07%	-6.87%	-7.85%	-5.83%	-8.29%	-7.95%	-7.14%	-14.74%	-10.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	10	10	8	5	9	5	10	5	7	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		34	38	39	42	42	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		17	16	12	18	19	24	21	22	24	21	16
Penetrated Low		11	11	8	10	15	21	19	16	16	15	10
Scenario Percentage		65%	69%	67%	56%	79%	88%	90%	73%	67%	71%	63%
Avg Max Decline		7.03%	6.05%	8.59%	12.04%	10.39%	13.79%	13.21%	15.27%	14.93%	10.92%	9.44%
Max Decline		16.98%	25.67%	23.48%	38.52%	41.64%	40.53%	37.04%	39.03%	42.35%	60.61%	42.09%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	14	17	15	14	18	18	20	16	13	12
Avg Max Increase		-0.75%	-1.76%	-1.89%	-2.17%	-2.10%	-2.14%	-2.84%	-3.69%	-3.09%	-2.08%	-3.63%
Max Increase		-2.79%	-6.62%	-9.00%	-12.53%	-7.04%	-6.54%	-9.43%	-12.34%	-10.85%	-12.26%	-13.67%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	7	12	12	8	7	9	10	7	7	2
2022 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes
Action					No			Yes
High	195.45	204.44	213.50	214.03	209.78	226.30	246.85	239.10	233.44	261.77	294.08	431.49
Low	175.98	189.93	200.16	192.30	185.40	202.90	223.45	197.79	195.27	226.01	254.67	284.50
Close/Last	190.90	200.13	208.01	213.27	206.05	224.20	234.49	201.27	226.87	258.68	284.66	336.09