MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
| Tested Years | 33 | 35 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 43 | 43 | 43 | |
| Closed Higher | 24 | 16 | 22 | 26 | 23 | 24 | 20 | 20 | 23 | 20 | 22 | |
| Exceeded High | 19 | 13 | 20 | 23 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 22 | 15 | 20 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 79% | 81% | 91% | 88% | 83% | 71% | 70% | 80% | 96% | 75% | 91% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 7.26% | 9.39% | 8.76% | 9.54% | 8.94% | 8.00% | 9.62% | 13.37% | 11.18% | 18.03% | 11.37% | |
| Max Increase | 30.75% | 26.14% | 23.82% | 59.17% | 31.26% | 19.36% | 23.56% | 28.14% | 37.61% | 77.14% | 59.35% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 10 | 13 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.79% | -1.35% | -3.17% | -2.00% | -1.80% | -1.64% | -2.80% | -2.20% | -3.08% | -2.37% | -2.33% | |
| Max Decline | -6.43% | -4.54% | -14.40% | -13.12% | -8.59% | -8.11% | -8.29% | -8.28% | -10.05% | -8.26% | -9.12% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 4 | |
| 2022 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
