MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		28	30	35	35	36	37	37	37	38	38	38
Closed Higher		21	13	18	22	20	20	18	17	19	16	19
Exceeded High		17	11	16	19	17	14	13	13	18	12	17
Scenario Percentage		81%	85%	89%	86%	85%	70%	72%	76%	95%	75%	89%
Avg Max Increase		6.92%	9.42%	9.96%	10.26%	8.71%	7.93%	9.65%	13.11%	9.75%	13.27%	9.37%
Max Increase		30.75%	26.14%	23.82%	59.17%	31.26%	19.36%	23.56%	28.14%	37.61%	28.18%	27.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	19	15	15	15	21	17	17	11	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.88%	-1.08%	-2.82%	-0.92%	-1.76%	-1.73%	-2.88%	-2.33%	-3.41%	-2.69%	-2.42%
Max Decline		-6.43%	-4.54%	-14.40%	-7.62%	-8.59%	-8.11%	-8.29%	-8.28%	-10.05%	-8.26%	-9.12%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	13	8	9	7	14	6	12	6	4
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		28	30	35	35	36	37	37	37	38	38	38
Closed Lower		7	17	17	13	16	17	19	20	19	22	19
Penetrated Low		4	11	13	8	9	15	17	19	16	14	14
Scenario Percentage		57%	65%	76%	62%	56%	88%	89%	95%	84%	64%	74%
Avg Max Decline		3.70%	8.61%	6.21%	8.84%	12.84%	9.71%	14.73%	15.01%	14.78%	12.79%	5.97%
Max Decline		5.22%	17.34%	26.00%	23.54%	38.98%	42.56%	41.36%	37.73%	36.13%	22.36%	13.25%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	16	13	17	16	15	19	20	20	13	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.75%	-1.48%	-2.30%	-2.35%	-2.15%	-3.48%	-2.28%	-2.98%	-4.05%	-3.23%	-0.90%
Max Increase		-5.93%	-8.90%	-7.74%	-12.41%	-13.21%	-15.93%	-6.84%	-11.89%	-13.07%	-11.25%	-6.19%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	4	9	12	11	11	7	12	12	6	4
2017 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes			Yes
Action					Yes			Yes			Yes
High	142.05	151.38	158.92	163.72	161.39	160.41	157.34	166.95	161.53	174.68	177.56	169.88
Low	129.53	126.18	141.30	151.16	139.60	135.99	144.26	154.37	141.87	158.93	162.40	159.85
Close/Last	135.91	149.06	156.46	158.63	141.11	149.41	157.31	154.53	159.75	173.95	163.78	163.99