MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		32	35	36	42	43	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		21	24	17	23	27	24	25	21	21	24	17
Exceeded High		21	19	14	21	23	20	20	16	17	22	12
Scenario Percentage		100%	79%	82%	91%	85%	83%	80%	76%	81%	92%	71%
Avg Max Increase		10.66%	7.71%	9.23%	8.78%	10.10%	9.47%	8.42%	10.35%	14.03%	12.48%	11.59%
Max Increase		42.43%	29.78%	25.61%	24.85%	62.05%	33.12%	23.00%	25.47%	34.25%	41.13%	26.53%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	16	18	17	17	16	14	20	17	17	17
Avg Max Decline		-2.27%	-1.89%	-1.33%	-3.16%	-2.29%	-2.15%	-2.06%	-2.62%	-2.19%	-3.14%	-1.68%
Max Decline		-8.64%	-7.69%	-5.71%	-17.69%	-13.34%	-10.58%	-10.07%	-8.35%	-8.24%	-13.01%	-9.43%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	6	8	12	9	9	6	12	5	8	3
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		32	35	36	42	43	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		11	11	19	19	15	19	18	22	22	19	26
Penetrated Low		7	6	13	14	9	11	14	19	22	14	14
Scenario Percentage		64%	55%	68%	74%	60%	58%	78%	86%	100%	74%	54%
Avg Max Decline		7.62%	8.05%	8.99%	6.85%	8.56%	11.62%	11.28%	15.65%	13.25%	16.31%	9.30%
Max Decline		13.96%	20.05%	17.56%	26.31%	23.72%	39.41%	42.24%	42.17%	38.36%	37.84%	20.51%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	19	17	18	17	17	14	18	19	16	16
Avg Max Increase		-4.00%	-3.11%	-1.30%	-2.25%	-2.46%	-2.41%	-2.34%	-2.48%	-4.03%	-3.62%	-2.90%
Max Increase		-10.29%	-5.79%	-8.44%	-7.59%	-12.77%	-14.75%	-7.13%	-7.75%	-12.74%	-14.44%	-11.57%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	12	4	12	10	15	8	8	13	10	5
2022 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes			Yes
Action		No					No			Yes
High	186.40	194.20	197.12	206.58	216.76	218.13	215.42	230.80	253.26	245.79	237.55	277.54
Low	161.79	175.93	177.23	191.90	202.70	194.24	187.61	205.58	226.80	200.35	198.47	229.77
Close/Last	180.85	178.96	192.64	202.31	210.97	216.49	209.25	228.33	240.78	204.19	230.84	271.57